***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2013.-22.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 3.1 3.6 0.0 49.8 51.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.0 3.3 0.0 49.8 52.1 2.3 4.0 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 6.5 5.7 3.6 0.0 49.7 51.2 3.7 5.7 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -1.6 0.3 1.3 -0.2 47.5 49.1 -1.3 0.6 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 2.8 4.8 1.9 -0.2 47.4 48.8 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.4 4.3 1.3 -0.3 46.7 48.3 2.8 4.6 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 4.4 3.7 3.3 0.0 49.8 52.1 1.9 3.7 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -2.6 -1.2 1.6 -0.4 44.6 47.2 -2.2 -0.8 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.4 5.5 2.8 -0.2 47.7 48.9 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 2.7 4.5 2.2 -0.4 45.8 47.9 3.1 5.0 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.0 5.0 1.9 -0.2 47.0 48.5 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.0 4.9 1.7 -0.4 45.2 47.4 3.4 5.4 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.9 4.7 1.4 -0.4 45.3 47.4 3.3 5.2 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 7.0 5.6 3.1 -0.3 46.6 49.2 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.4 3.6 1.7 -0.1 48.4 49.9 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.5 5.4 1.5 -0.3 46.5 48.3 3.9 5.8 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.2 3.5 3.2 0.0 49.6 51.8 1.9 3.6 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 3.5 2.2 2.1 -0.5 44.3 47.5 1.0 2.8 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.5 4.6 3.4 0.0 49.5 51.8 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 3.0 1.5 0.7 -0.6 42.4 46.6 0.5 2.3 3.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 6.4 5.4 3.2 -0.1 48.8 49.9 3.6 5.6 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.0 3.2 -0.1 48.2 50.6 2.3 4.2 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 5.3 4.4 3.6 -0.1 48.9 51.2 2.6 4.5 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 6.6 5.5 3.1 -0.3 46.8 49.1 3.9 5.8 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.9 4.1 2.1 -0.1 48.3 50.0 2.6 4.3 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.6 4.1 1.3 -0.4 44.9 47.4 2.9 4.5 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 6.2 5.3 2.9 -0.1 49.0 50.8 3.6 5.4 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.6 4.5 1.5 -0.2 47.8 49.3 2.7 4.8 6.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 3.2 1.6 1.5 -0.6 43.3 47.2 0.5 2.4 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.1 3.5 0.0 49.9 52.0 2.3 4.1 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------