***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2013.-22.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 9999.0 4.2 3.4 -2.1 19.7 25.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 4.0 3.7 3.3 -1.8 23.3 28.4 4.4 5.3 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 5.2 4.8 3.4 -2.1 19.9 25.4 5.7 6.7 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 -0.2 -0.6 1.2 -2.1 20.9 25.6 0.3 1.4 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 4.9 4.3 1.7 -2.4 17.5 23.1 5.5 6.5 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 4.3 3.6 1.0 -2.6 14.8 21.3 5.0 6.0 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 3.8 3.6 3.2 -1.8 23.2 28.4 4.2 5.1 6.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 -1.1 -2.0 1.1 -2.6 13.8 20.0 -0.4 0.6 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 5.5 4.9 2.6 -2.3 17.6 23.6 6.1 7.1 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 4.8 4.0 1.8 -2.6 14.6 20.7 5.4 6.3 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 5.0 4.3 1.7 -2.5 16.2 22.2 5.6 6.6 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 5.0 4.3 1.5 -2.5 14.9 21.3 5.7 6.7 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 4.7 4.0 1.3 -2.7 13.7 20.2 5.5 6.5 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 5.4 4.8 2.8 -2.4 17.5 23.3 6.0 7.1 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 4.0 3.9 2.0 -1.6 26.1 30.3 4.3 5.2 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 5.4 4.7 1.4 -2.5 15.8 21.9 6.1 7.1 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.6 3.5 3.2 -1.7 25.8 30.3 3.9 4.8 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 77 23 0 100 2.9 2.2 1.5 -2.8 13.1 19.2 3.6 4.4 5.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 4.4 4.1 3.4 -1.9 22.7 27.9 4.8 5.8 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 1.8 0.8 0.0 -2.9 11.3 17.7 2.6 3.7 4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 5.2 4.6 3.0 -2.3 18.4 24.0 5.7 6.7 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 4.2 4.0 3.3 -1.7 25.4 29.9 4.5 5.4 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 4.4 4.1 3.4 -2.0 21.5 26.9 4.9 5.8 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 5.5 4.9 2.6 -2.5 16.3 22.1 6.2 7.2 8.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 4.0 3.6 1.9 -2.3 17.9 23.2 4.7 5.6 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 4.5 3.8 1.1 -2.6 13.1 20.2 5.2 6.1 7.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 4.9 4.5 2.7 -2.2 18.4 23.8 5.6 6.6 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 4.4 4.1 1.6 -2.0 22.6 27.3 4.8 5.8 6.7 28 Zajecar 36700G16 77 23 0 100 1.9 1.0 0.9 -2.8 12.4 18.8 2.6 3.5 4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 4.0 3.7 3.4 -1.9 22.0 27.4 4.5 5.4 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------