***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2013.-01.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 9999.0 9.1 17.5 176.7 82.7 73.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 10.8 11.8 12.8 130.2 72.7 62.3 2.9 5.7 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 14.9 20.7 17.4 167.1 81.1 71.7 3.6 7.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 18.1 25.8 20.8 179.5 84.3 73.0 5.9 10.0 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 16.4 25.6 22.5 199.8 87.2 78.0 4.0 7.6 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 13.7 18.1 18.7 169.5 81.3 74.1 3.8 6.9 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 10.5 11.3 12.7 129.1 72.5 61.9 3.2 5.8 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 18.0 21.6 19.3 161.8 79.6 72.8 7.1 11.0 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 13.9 21.2 22.1 195.6 86.2 77.8 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 17.0 24.2 21.9 188.5 85.2 78.0 5.1 8.8 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 15.7 23.5 19.7 187.1 84.8 76.2 3.8 7.4 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 17.9 22.8 17.3 159.7 79.4 71.5 5.1 9.3 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 17.3 22.9 20.2 177.7 82.8 76.1 5.1 8.8 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 18.2 24.7 20.4 160.6 80.6 70.7 4.6 9.1 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 21.1 27.5 18.4 151.9 78.4 65.0 5.2 10.5 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 15.5 22.1 19.5 180.0 83.4 75.0 4.1 7.7 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 7.8 9.7 10.9 108.0 66.0 56.2 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 19.1 26.0 22.8 176.6 83.1 76.6 5.9 10.2 15.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 12.6 14.6 13.9 136.6 74.4 64.2 2.9 6.1 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 45 55 100 18.6 19.7 20.7 125.8 70.2 65.7 6.3 11.1 17.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 14.6 21.4 20.5 189.6 84.8 75.6 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.0 10.0 11.0 98.2 61.9 53.2 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 12.5 16.0 16.1 148.7 77.5 67.8 2.7 5.8 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 18.6 26.0 21.5 177.3 83.4 75.3 5.5 9.6 15.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 14.0 22.0 22.5 192.2 85.5 76.4 3.0 6.2 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 11.6 13.5 17.2 143.0 76.0 68.9 3.7 6.4 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 14.7 21.2 19.8 181.4 83.6 74.2 3.5 7.0 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 17.5 23.7 19.0 167.0 81.6 69.5 5.7 9.7 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 27.9 34.9 22.5 159.4 79.3 73.7 8.1 14.6 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 11.2 13.6 13.9 141.0 75.5 65.3 3.0 5.8 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------