***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2013.-08.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 8.3 11.2 86.5 57.6 48.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.3 6.4 9.6 78.0 54.4 45.8 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.9 8.9 10.8 84.3 56.5 47.4 3.5 7.1 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.7 10.1 13.4 93.4 60.8 49.1 3.5 7.0 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.3 11.4 13.3 98.4 61.9 51.4 4.5 8.0 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.3 8.9 13.4 101.1 62.6 51.0 2.9 5.8 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.3 6.3 9.3 77.0 54.1 45.0 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.3 15.4 14.8 104.4 64.1 53.7 5.8 10.3 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.6 10.3 14.2 105.5 64.5 54.4 3.3 6.5 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.4 12.5 14.8 105.3 64.4 54.4 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.2 11.2 12.6 98.9 61.8 50.8 3.6 7.4 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.0 12.4 12.9 99.6 62.3 51.6 3.7 7.9 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.9 10.5 12.7 96.1 60.8 50.2 3.5 7.1 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.2 10.9 12.2 80.6 55.1 46.8 5.4 9.4 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.5 10.0 14.0 89.5 59.9 46.4 2.6 6.6 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 9.6 9.9 12.2 96.1 60.7 49.6 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 8.5 7.5 9.2 81.1 55.4 45.5 3.5 6.3 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 9.8 10.9 15.5 101.9 63.2 53.9 4.0 7.4 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.6 9.9 78.4 54.5 46.2 3.9 6.7 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.7 12.3 18.7 101.3 63.2 53.7 4.6 8.3 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.5 10.3 12.7 98.5 61.8 51.3 3.8 7.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.0 7.7 9.5 78.7 53.6 44.5 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.1 7.5 10.4 79.7 54.8 46.5 3.8 6.6 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.1 11.0 12.9 91.4 59.2 50.4 4.7 8.4 13.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.7 7.6 13.1 89.0 58.6 49.0 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.9 9.3 12.6 92.3 60.1 49.8 3.2 6.6 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.1 8.7 12.3 86.4 57.6 48.6 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.0 8.7 13.4 94.5 61.2 48.2 2.4 5.6 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.6 15.7 17.0 102.4 63.5 54.4 6.1 10.6 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.8 6.9 9.9 78.5 54.5 45.7 3.5 6.1 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------