***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2013.-15.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 8.7 8.6 94.4 60.5 47.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 9.1 8.8 7.9 88.2 58.4 47.4 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.6 8.9 8.3 89.3 57.8 46.5 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 5.3 12.7 10.3 97.7 62.7 48.9 5.4 9.2 13.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.5 9.1 9.8 92.4 60.0 48.0 4.5 7.2 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.2 7.4 10.6 100.8 63.1 51.0 3.0 5.2 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.0 7.8 87.9 58.6 47.0 4.1 7.7 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 8.8 16.8 11.0 97.9 62.0 50.9 9.0 13.2 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.5 7.8 9.8 89.9 57.9 46.6 3.6 6.2 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 5.3 10.6 10.4 90.1 58.4 48.2 5.5 8.7 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.4 9.5 9.5 94.5 60.9 49.7 4.2 7.0 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.9 10.9 10.3 104.9 64.7 52.2 4.9 7.7 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.5 10.1 10.6 105.5 64.8 52.3 4.6 7.2 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 6.5 13.5 9.8 85.2 54.8 44.1 6.5 11.7 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.9 13.0 11.0 107.1 66.7 50.1 2.9 6.6 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.4 9.0 9.7 100.4 63.1 51.3 3.2 6.0 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.2 9.0 7.8 85.3 57.4 45.6 4.0 7.1 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.3 9.9 11.0 87.9 57.1 47.6 5.2 8.3 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.5 10.4 8.0 88.0 57.7 47.1 4.2 8.1 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.6 12.3 14.0 97.4 62.1 51.1 5.4 9.0 13.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.3 9.1 9.3 93.2 59.5 47.4 4.2 7.1 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.8 9.6 8.1 83.1 55.5 44.5 4.6 8.2 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.4 9.6 8.2 86.4 55.7 45.2 4.2 8.0 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.8 11.5 9.5 84.3 54.8 44.7 5.8 10.0 15.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.4 7.7 10.2 97.3 62.2 49.0 3.3 5.6 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.8 12.1 11.1 113.3 67.7 53.7 4.6 7.6 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.0 9.2 9.5 95.4 61.1 48.5 3.7 6.7 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.3 9.6 10.2 99.0 63.3 49.3 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 8.4 16.1 11.9 89.6 58.4 48.7 8.4 13.2 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 10.1 9.9 7.9 89.4 58.8 47.6 3.8 7.4 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------