***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2013.-22.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 10.1 9.0 118.0 69.5 56.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 8.2 10.3 8.4 112.5 68.2 53.9 4.1 6.6 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 12.1 16.5 9.3 119.3 69.8 56.3 5.5 9.5 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 6.4 16.7 10.0 124.4 71.2 56.0 6.5 10.2 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 13.6 18.5 10.0 124.6 71.0 55.8 6.4 10.7 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 5.6 16.3 10.1 129.5 72.5 54.7 5.4 9.1 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.6 10.8 8.3 110.9 67.7 53.2 4.5 7.1 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.8 25.2 10.9 139.1 75.1 58.3 8.5 13.6 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 5.4 14.2 10.3 123.0 70.6 55.5 5.2 8.5 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.9 18.6 10.8 130.8 72.9 57.4 5.5 9.7 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.8 16.2 9.8 133.6 73.6 57.4 4.7 8.3 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.6 17.2 9.9 141.6 75.8 57.9 4.3 7.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 7.2 20.1 10.0 138.2 74.9 57.6 7.1 11.1 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.7 18.7 10.7 113.5 68.0 56.0 7.0 11.7 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 4.5 15.3 10.1 127.5 72.3 55.5 4.4 7.9 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 12.2 17.6 9.6 135.5 74.2 56.9 6.3 9.9 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.4 11.1 7.9 104.9 66.0 51.0 4.4 7.4 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 16.5 17.2 11.6 128.4 72.3 58.1 4.6 8.7 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.2 10.9 8.7 113.8 68.5 54.9 3.4 6.2 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 19.8 22.1 13.7 136.5 74.4 58.9 6.2 11.0 17.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 5.7 16.0 9.7 118.7 69.5 55.7 5.6 9.4 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.5 9.3 8.5 106.3 66.5 52.7 3.3 5.8 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.3 10.8 9.2 113.4 68.2 56.1 3.7 6.5 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.6 17.9 10.7 120.9 70.2 57.1 5.0 9.5 15.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 5.1 15.8 10.0 120.6 70.1 56.5 4.6 8.6 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.4 18.3 10.3 144.0 76.4 57.7 5.1 8.9 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 10.8 15.0 9.6 120.0 70.0 56.2 4.2 7.9 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 5.3 13.9 10.0 128.7 72.4 55.6 5.3 8.3 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 27.5 28.8 12.2 128.2 72.2 58.2 8.8 15.4 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.6 11.1 8.7 116.5 69.2 55.2 4.4 7.0 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------