***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2013.-22.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 39.3 46.4 116.9 68.0 60.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 37.6 38.0 38.8 100.4 58.5 52.1 25.4 33.4 42.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 47.3 55.7 45.9 113.5 66.1 58.6 31.3 42.5 55.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 51.5 63.4 54.5 122.5 71.0 62.3 34.7 45.8 58.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 58.6 61.6 55.6 128.0 74.0 66.4 33.8 43.7 54.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 47.2 50.3 52.8 124.0 72.2 65.2 27.9 36.3 45.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 38.8 39.2 38.0 99.5 58.2 51.7 26.6 34.8 43.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 74.0 76.8 56.0 123.5 71.9 65.3 48.1 59.2 71.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 51.1 53.7 56.4 128.1 74.4 66.8 27.0 36.2 46.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 61.5 64.7 57.9 127.3 74.1 67.4 36.3 46.6 57.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 55.8 59.1 51.7 126.8 73.5 66.2 33.3 42.8 53.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 60.1 63.2 50.3 124.0 72.1 65.0 35.0 45.7 57.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 58.5 62.2 53.5 127.8 74.2 67.4 35.9 45.4 55.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 61.8 67.6 53.1 108.9 63.3 56.1 43.0 55.8 70.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 53.8 66.1 53.6 116.3 67.6 57.1 29.0 44.7 63.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 55.2 58.3 51.0 126.6 73.3 65.9 30.2 40.5 51.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 40.3 38.3 35.8 93.9 54.4 48.3 27.1 35.7 45.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 59.6 61.4 60.8 122.7 71.9 65.2 36.5 46.1 56.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 43.0 44.0 40.4 102.4 59.5 52.9 28.2 37.9 48.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 57.2 64.4 67.1 112.3 65.4 59.3 39.0 51.5 65.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 44.7 57.0 52.2 124.7 72.3 63.9 30.4 40.5 51.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 43.3 39.0 37.2 90.4 51.3 46.4 29.1 38.2 48.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 42.4 44.5 44.0 105.7 61.3 54.2 28.6 37.6 47.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 56.8 65.8 54.6 117.7 68.8 61.6 41.4 52.0 63.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 47.8 49.7 55.8 123.5 71.6 63.8 29.3 37.2 46.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 43.5 52.6 51.3 120.1 70.1 62.9 30.9 39.8 49.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 43.6 52.9 51.1 118.7 69.1 61.2 28.5 38.8 50.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 45.1 55.1 52.6 120.6 70.0 60.4 29.5 39.8 51.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 91.2 91.8 63.5 118.8 69.6 63.1 55.1 70.3 87.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 39.1 41.5 40.4 104.2 60.7 54.1 25.7 34.7 45.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------