***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 4.1 6.0 6.5 3.8 89.8 88.0 -0.2 1.4 2.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 3 97 100 3.8 5.3 5.9 3.5 88.0 86.0 -0.3 1.3 2.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 5.5 7.2 6.4 3.6 89.2 87.3 1.4 2.9 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 0.3 3.3 3.8 4.1 94.0 92.2 -4.2 -2.6 -1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 3.7 5.9 5.2 3.8 91.2 89.7 -0.9 0.8 2.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 2.9 6.2 2.8 4.0 95.3 93.8 -1.7 0.0 1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 3.5 4.6 5.7 3.3 86.1 84.1 -0.3 1.1 2.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 -1.6 0.1 2.8 3.5 88.8 87.0 -5.8 -4.2 -2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 4.1 6.0 4.8 3.5 91.0 89.4 0.1 1.5 2.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 3.6 5.5 3.4 3.5 89.8 88.0 -0.6 1.0 2.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 3.5 5.9 4.4 3.6 91.4 89.8 -1.2 0.5 2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 2.5 4.3 3.7 3.4 89.3 87.3 -2.1 -0.4 1.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 2.9 5.3 3.6 3.6 91.9 89.6 -1.5 0.1 1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 3 97 100 3.9 5.1 4.5 3.5 87.9 85.8 0.3 1.6 2.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 3.8 7.3 5.5 4.1 95.7 94.1 -0.6 1.0 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 4.2 6.8 4.0 3.7 92.8 91.0 -0.3 1.4 2.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 3 97 100 3.2 4.4 5.5 3.5 87.1 84.9 -0.6 0.8 2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 1.5 3.2 3.1 3.6 88.8 87.0 -2.6 -1.1 0.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 3.7 5.1 5.9 3.5 88.5 86.5 -0.2 1.3 2.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 -0.3 1.4 2.2 3.6 86.5 84.8 -5.8 -3.8 -1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 4.0 5.9 5.9 3.6 90.2 88.3 -0.2 1.3 2.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 3.2 4.5 5.8 3.4 87.5 85.4 -0.6 0.8 2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 3.5 4.9 5.6 3.4 88.2 86.3 -0.2 1.2 2.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 3 97 100 3.2 4.6 4.5 3.5 88.8 86.8 -0.6 0.8 2.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 4.4 6.6 6.2 4.0 91.0 89.3 -0.1 1.5 3.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 3.1 4.6 3.2 3.2 88.3 86.5 -1.0 0.5 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 4.8 6.8 6.3 3.8 88.7 86.8 0.0 1.8 3.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 2.7 5.8 4.3 4.1 94.6 92.8 -1.8 -0.2 1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 3 97 100 1.4 2.9 2.4 3.6 87.3 85.8 -3.2 -1.5 0.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 4.1 5.5 6.1 3.5 88.0 86.1 0.0 1.5 2.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------