***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2019.-22.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 0.7 0.8 2.7 1.6 73.5 70.7 -1.2 -0.3 0.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 0.5 0.6 2.4 1.6 74.5 71.9 -1.5 -0.6 0.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 2.1 2.4 2.8 1.7 75.8 72.9 0.3 1.1 1.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 -2.9 -2.5 0.2 1.9 78.3 75.2 -5.1 -4.2 -3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 75.5 72.7 -1.9 -1.0 -0.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 -0.6 -0.1 -1.0 1.8 77.5 74.5 -2.5 -1.6 -0.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 0.3 0.5 2.4 1.6 73.3 70.8 -1.5 -0.7 0.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 -4.5 -4.3 -0.9 1.5 72.7 70.2 -6.5 -5.6 -4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.7 76.1 73.2 -1.1 -0.3 0.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 0.1 0.4 -0.3 1.6 74.4 71.7 -1.7 -0.8 -0.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.6 74.4 71.8 -1.9 -1.0 -0.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 1.5 71.8 69.5 -2.5 -1.7 -0.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 -0.2 0.1 -0.5 1.5 72.5 69.9 -2.2 -1.2 -0.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.7 75.1 72.3 -0.8 -0.1 0.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.0 81.4 78.3 -1.8 -0.9 -0.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 0.7 1.0 -0.1 1.6 74.2 71.5 -1.1 -0.3 0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 0.2 0.3 2.4 1.7 74.9 72.2 -1.7 -0.9 -0.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 -1.5 -1.2 -0.8 1.7 73.7 70.9 -3.6 -2.6 -1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 0.5 0.6 2.4 1.6 75.1 72.5 -1.3 -0.6 0.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 -4.1 -3.9 -1.9 1.5 70.8 68.1 -6.3 -5.2 -4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 0.5 0.7 2.2 1.7 75.4 72.6 -1.3 -0.5 0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 0.2 0.4 2.4 1.7 76.0 73.2 -1.7 -0.9 -0.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 0.4 0.6 2.3 1.7 75.5 72.7 -1.4 -0.7 0.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 75.9 73.1 -1.5 -0.8 -0.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 0.6 0.8 1.9 1.7 74.8 72.0 -1.4 -0.5 0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 -0.2 -0.1 -0.7 1.3 69.5 67.4 -1.9 -1.1 -0.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 0.8 1.0 2.4 1.6 73.1 70.4 -1.2 -0.3 0.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 -0.8 -0.4 0.5 1.9 79.3 76.1 -2.8 -2.0 -1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 -2.3 -2.1 -1.2 1.6 72.7 70.1 -4.1 -3.2 -2.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 0.7 0.9 2.5 1.6 74.4 71.8 -1.2 -0.4 0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------