***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2019.-15.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 6.8 6.4 7.0 1.4 65.4 62.9 3.1 4.8 6.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 6.1 5.8 7.0 1.6 66.7 64.2 2.5 4.2 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 7.9 7.5 7.6 1.7 67.2 64.3 3.7 5.6 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 2.6 2.6 4.9 1.9 69.5 65.7 -1.5 0.4 2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 7.5 7.1 5.8 1.6 66.3 63.1 3.4 5.3 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.6 6.1 5.2 1.3 62.2 59.6 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 5.9 5.5 6.8 1.5 65.5 63.3 2.3 4.0 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 1.6 1.0 5.5 1.4 63.6 61.2 -1.8 -0.2 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 8.0 7.6 6.6 1.6 65.7 62.6 3.9 5.8 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 7.1 6.5 6.1 1.5 64.0 61.4 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 7.6 7.1 5.9 1.5 64.6 61.8 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 7.8 7.0 5.7 1.3 63.3 61.0 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.1 6.3 5.0 0.9 59.7 57.9 3.3 5.2 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 8.2 7.5 7.1 1.6 64.6 62.5 3.7 5.7 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 6.2 6.4 5.8 2.0 71.7 67.5 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 8.1 7.4 5.4 1.3 63.0 60.4 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 5.6 5.3 6.9 1.6 66.6 64.2 2.2 3.8 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 5.1 4.4 6.1 1.3 62.2 60.3 1.9 3.4 4.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 6.9 6.6 7.3 1.7 67.1 64.6 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 3.3 3.7 4.4 1.1 60.9 59.3 0.8 2.6 4.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 7.6 7.3 7.0 1.6 66.2 63.2 3.7 5.6 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 6.4 6.0 7.0 1.7 67.4 64.9 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 6.8 6.5 7.7 1.7 67.1 64.5 3.0 4.7 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 8.3 7.6 6.9 1.6 64.8 62.4 3.8 5.9 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 6.5 6.2 5.7 1.4 65.3 62.5 3.0 4.6 6.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 6.4 5.7 4.9 0.9 60.0 58.5 3.1 4.7 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 7.4 6.9 6.4 1.3 63.9 61.5 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 6.8 6.9 5.4 1.9 69.8 65.9 3.0 4.7 6.4 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 3.9 3.1 5.5 1.2 61.0 59.4 0.3 2.0 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 6.3 6.0 7.0 1.6 66.7 64.2 2.6 4.3 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------