***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2019.-22.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 6.0 5.8 6.0 1.7 66.5 63.1 2.3 4.1 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 6.1 5.8 5.8 1.8 67.0 63.8 2.3 4.0 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 7.9 7.8 6.5 1.9 67.8 64.1 3.7 5.7 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 2.7 2.7 3.8 1.9 68.4 64.1 -1.3 0.6 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 5.7 7.0 4.8 1.9 67.8 63.8 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 5.2 6.3 4.5 1.8 66.1 61.9 2.8 4.6 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 5.6 5.4 5.7 1.7 66.2 63.2 1.9 3.7 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -0.3 0.6 4.7 1.8 67.0 63.0 -2.2 -0.8 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 7.9 7.9 5.7 2.0 68.0 63.9 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 5.6 6.8 5.2 1.9 66.9 63.0 3.1 5.0 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 5.9 7.2 4.9 1.8 67.2 63.4 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 6.0 7.4 4.8 1.8 67.4 63.5 3.4 5.4 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 5.9 7.0 4.4 1.7 65.5 61.9 3.3 5.2 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 8.4 8.3 6.1 2.0 66.8 63.2 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 5.6 5.6 4.7 2.0 69.9 65.3 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.4 7.6 4.5 1.7 66.2 62.5 3.9 5.8 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 5.5 5.2 5.8 1.8 67.0 63.8 1.9 3.6 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 3.4 4.4 5.2 1.8 65.5 62.0 1.0 2.8 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 6.9 6.7 6.1 1.9 67.2 63.9 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 2.9 3.8 3.8 1.6 65.1 61.5 0.5 2.3 3.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 7.6 7.6 6.1 1.9 68.1 64.1 3.6 5.6 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 6.2 6.0 5.9 1.8 67.5 64.2 2.3 4.2 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 6.6 6.4 6.5 1.9 67.2 63.7 2.6 4.5 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 7.8 7.7 6.0 1.9 67.0 63.3 3.9 5.8 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 6.0 5.9 4.8 1.8 66.8 63.0 2.6 4.3 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 6.2 6.1 4.3 1.6 66.9 62.9 2.9 4.5 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 7.5 7.1 5.5 1.7 65.7 62.3 3.6 5.4 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 7.0 7.0 4.2 2.0 68.3 64.0 2.7 4.8 6.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 3.0 4.0 4.7 1.7 64.8 61.5 0.5 2.4 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 6.1 5.9 5.9 1.8 67.0 63.8 2.3 4.1 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------