***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2019.-22.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 7.0 7.4 8.2 1.8 76.7 73.0 4.8 5.8 6.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 6.6 6.9 8.2 1.9 76.4 73.0 4.4 5.3 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 8.0 8.4 8.8 2.0 77.7 73.8 5.7 6.7 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 2.7 3.4 5.8 2.1 80.7 75.8 0.3 1.4 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 7.7 8.1 7.0 1.8 76.2 72.1 5.5 6.5 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 7.0 7.5 6.4 1.7 74.6 70.0 5.0 6.0 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 6.3 6.6 7.9 1.7 74.8 71.7 4.2 5.1 6.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 1.8 2.2 6.5 1.7 74.2 70.3 -0.4 0.6 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 8.4 8.8 7.9 1.9 76.7 72.5 6.1 7.1 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 7.4 7.8 7.3 1.8 75.0 71.0 5.4 6.3 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 7.7 8.2 7.3 1.7 74.5 70.8 5.6 6.6 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 7.8 8.2 6.8 1.6 73.9 70.2 5.7 6.7 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 6.8 7.8 6.9 1.4 70.4 67.0 5.5 6.5 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 8.3 8.7 8.4 1.9 75.0 71.6 6.0 7.1 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 6.4 7.1 7.0 2.3 83.7 78.3 4.3 5.2 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 8.2 8.5 6.8 1.6 72.6 69.1 6.1 7.1 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 6.0 6.3 7.9 1.8 76.0 72.6 3.9 4.8 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 5.3 5.6 7.1 1.7 72.6 69.2 3.6 4.4 5.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 7.1 7.4 8.4 1.9 76.7 73.3 4.8 5.8 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 4.7 5.0 5.5 1.5 70.9 67.6 2.6 3.7 4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 7.9 8.4 8.4 1.9 76.7 72.7 5.7 6.7 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 6.7 7.0 8.0 1.8 76.7 73.3 4.5 5.4 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 7.0 7.3 8.8 2.0 76.6 73.2 4.9 5.8 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 8.4 8.9 8.3 1.9 75.4 71.8 6.2 7.2 8.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 6.8 7.1 7.1 1.8 76.1 72.0 4.7 5.6 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 7.0 7.3 6.1 1.4 71.7 68.0 5.2 6.1 7.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 7.7 8.1 7.7 1.7 74.5 71.0 5.6 6.6 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 7.0 7.7 6.4 2.1 80.7 75.8 4.8 5.8 6.7 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 4.5 4.7 6.5 1.6 71.2 68.0 2.6 3.5 4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 6.7 7.0 8.3 1.9 76.8 73.4 4.5 5.4 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------