***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2019.-08.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9.1 11.8 15.9 114.4 67.4 56.4 4.2 7.2 11.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.3 10.5 15.2 123.9 70.8 56.7 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.6 12.6 15.5 113.2 66.9 56.5 3.5 7.1 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.7 9.3 14.7 91.9 58.6 49.3 3.5 7.0 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.3 12.8 16.5 111.5 66.1 56.8 4.5 8.0 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.1 10.2 15.6 112.4 66.6 55.8 2.9 5.8 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.2 10.1 14.8 119.9 69.5 55.5 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.1 15.2 16.3 103.8 63.5 53.6 5.8 10.3 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.6 9.9 15.1 104.0 63.1 53.8 3.3 6.5 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.2 12.5 16.0 107.3 64.7 55.0 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 10.0 12.2 15.7 107.3 64.4 54.6 3.6 7.4 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.3 13.6 15.6 106.4 64.5 53.8 3.7 7.9 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.9 13.3 17.6 115.8 67.9 56.3 3.5 7.1 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 16.4 15.1 17.9 112.7 66.7 58.0 5.4 9.4 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.5 6.6 11.6 71.7 50.0 40.7 2.6 6.6 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.3 11.5 15.6 108.5 65.4 54.4 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.4 11.2 14.7 117.6 68.7 55.1 3.5 6.3 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.5 11.9 17.1 110.8 66.0 56.9 4.0 7.4 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.4 11.5 15.3 122.1 70.1 57.0 3.9 6.7 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.7 11.4 20.3 99.0 60.8 51.3 4.6 8.3 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.4 11.2 15.5 107.1 64.3 54.3 3.8 7.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 9.2 12.3 15.2 117.1 68.6 55.0 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.3 10.8 15.1 115.2 67.7 56.8 3.8 6.6 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.6 13.4 16.6 111.9 66.4 57.5 4.7 8.4 13.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 10.9 10.3 18.8 119.5 69.1 58.6 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.1 10.8 16.7 106.5 64.5 52.9 3.2 6.6 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.2 12.3 17.4 120.5 69.5 58.3 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.2 7.5 13.3 88.7 57.3 47.4 2.4 5.6 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.6 16.3 18.4 109.0 65.2 55.7 6.1 10.6 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.8 10.6 15.2 120.8 69.7 56.6 3.5 6.1 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------