***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2019.-15.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 3.1 9.5 13.7 108.9 65.8 48.7 3.1 5.8 9.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 3.5 10.4 11.6 100.4 63.6 48.3 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 3.5 10.4 12.7 100.7 62.9 46.6 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.4 12.1 13.0 95.0 60.9 45.4 5.4 9.2 13.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 4.3 9.8 13.2 100.3 62.6 47.4 4.5 7.2 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.9 6.5 10.5 89.5 58.1 45.6 3.0 5.2 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.3 11.3 11.2 98.8 62.7 48.0 4.1 7.7 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.9 16.9 13.6 100.2 62.4 46.0 9.0 13.2 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.5 8.8 13.7 100.9 62.7 47.1 3.6 6.2 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 5.4 11.6 13.9 100.0 62.1 46.5 5.5 8.7 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.3 9.9 12.6 100.4 62.5 48.0 4.2 7.0 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 5.0 10.3 12.2 99.1 62.1 46.7 4.9 7.7 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.6 9.4 12.0 97.3 61.4 47.7 4.6 7.2 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.8 16.3 14.7 97.2 61.7 47.0 6.5 11.7 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.9 7.5 10.6 73.5 52.8 38.3 2.9 6.6 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.4 8.8 12.0 99.5 62.3 48.1 3.2 6.0 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.9 10.1 10.7 94.3 61.3 46.7 4.0 7.1 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.1 11.3 14.8 101.5 62.9 46.2 5.2 8.3 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 4.2 12.2 11.7 98.9 62.8 47.4 4.2 8.1 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.3 12.9 18.2 102.8 63.8 45.2 5.4 9.0 13.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 4.0 10.1 13.4 102.5 63.4 47.0 4.2 7.1 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.6 11.5 11.5 95.5 61.9 46.6 4.6 8.2 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 4.2 11.2 11.8 94.5 60.8 45.7 4.2 8.0 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 5.7 14.0 13.9 98.9 62.0 46.0 5.8 10.0 15.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.3 8.7 15.2 110.1 66.4 49.3 3.3 5.6 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 4.5 9.9 11.5 92.0 59.9 44.9 4.6 7.6 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.8 10.7 14.5 111.5 66.7 49.8 3.7 6.7 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.4 8.3 11.6 89.2 58.7 44.6 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 8.2 18.0 15.9 102.5 63.4 46.4 8.4 13.2 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 3.9 11.6 12.1 102.4 64.0 48.3 3.8 7.4 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------