***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2019.-22.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 4.9 11.9 11.1 97.2 64.0 50.5 4.8 8.2 12.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.0 9.8 10.4 103.6 66.0 52.2 4.1 6.6 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 12.4 14.7 11.3 101.5 65.5 50.3 5.5 9.5 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.4 13.3 11.6 91.9 61.7 47.5 6.5 10.2 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.5 15.6 12.3 100.4 64.5 50.4 6.4 10.7 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.3 12.3 10.4 94.3 62.0 50.5 5.4 9.1 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 4.2 10.5 10.3 105.8 66.7 52.6 4.5 7.1 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.9 19.0 12.7 98.2 63.6 50.7 8.5 13.6 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 10.7 12.8 13.4 106.6 66.5 51.6 5.2 8.5 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.5 15.3 13.7 105.9 66.1 51.7 5.5 9.7 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.5 12.5 11.7 100.5 64.4 50.9 4.7 8.3 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.3 11.4 11.0 94.2 62.2 50.0 4.3 7.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.5 14.8 11.1 94.0 62.2 50.9 7.1 11.1 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.8 18.3 14.9 108.5 67.3 52.6 7.0 11.7 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 4.4 11.1 10.8 87.5 61.2 43.8 4.4 7.9 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.1 13.7 11.1 98.4 63.7 51.3 6.3 9.9 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.3 11.1 10.0 104.5 66.2 52.3 4.4 7.4 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.5 15.1 14.9 112.3 68.0 52.9 4.6 8.7 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.6 9.9 10.7 101.4 65.3 51.5 3.4 6.2 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 14.4 17.3 17.1 105.8 66.0 52.7 6.2 11.0 17.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 5.7 14.4 12.3 103.0 65.6 50.7 5.6 9.4 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.4 8.9 10.6 100.9 65.1 51.8 3.3 5.8 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.3 10.0 11.7 102.7 65.7 51.2 3.7 6.5 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.7 16.6 14.0 111.1 67.9 52.3 5.0 9.5 15.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.5 13.2 12.4 97.7 63.9 51.4 4.6 8.6 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.4 11.4 10.3 85.4 59.1 47.5 5.1 8.9 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.5 12.8 11.9 100.6 64.9 52.1 4.2 7.9 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.2 11.1 11.0 93.6 62.6 47.3 5.3 8.3 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.9 25.6 15.8 113.1 68.1 53.4 8.8 15.4 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.4 10.3 10.8 103.2 66.0 51.6 4.4 7.0 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------