***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2019.-22.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 42.0 43.9 52.9 106.1 61.3 54.3 27.5 36.8 47.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 37.7 40.0 48.2 107.0 62.0 54.8 25.4 33.4 42.5 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 30.1 48.6 50.0 101.6 58.0 50.9 31.3 42.5 55.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 32.9 46.2 52.6 91.9 50.5 45.8 34.7 45.8 58.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 33.1 48.1 53.9 100.7 57.0 49.9 33.8 43.7 54.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 40.3 39.8 47.5 98.7 56.3 51.1 27.9 36.3 45.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 39.0 41.3 47.5 106.8 61.9 54.6 26.6 34.8 43.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 47.0 59.5 53.3 92.3 50.5 45.8 48.1 59.2 71.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 26.1 40.1 53.7 100.3 56.5 49.0 27.0 36.2 46.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 35.6 49.2 54.5 97.3 54.1 47.9 36.3 46.6 57.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 32.9 46.0 51.3 98.5 55.4 49.2 33.3 42.8 53.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 34.8 47.1 49.2 93.9 52.0 47.3 35.0 45.7 57.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 49.5 49.9 52.9 100.8 57.4 52.1 35.9 45.4 55.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 42.5 62.2 60.4 101.3 57.6 50.8 43.0 55.8 70.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 29.2 38.3 45.9 81.0 43.5 40.4 29.0 44.7 63.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 45.4 44.9 50.8 99.8 56.8 50.9 30.2 40.5 51.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 40.1 42.5 47.1 106.5 61.8 54.8 27.1 35.7 45.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 35.3 49.0 57.4 97.8 54.4 47.5 36.5 46.1 56.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 28.0 44.7 48.5 104.7 60.4 53.6 28.2 37.9 48.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 37.8 49.7 67.0 89.2 47.7 43.3 39.0 51.5 65.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 29.3 45.4 53.1 101.7 57.7 50.2 30.4 40.5 51.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 43.3 45.0 49.3 104.8 60.6 54.2 29.1 38.2 48.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 27.6 42.3 49.8 101.4 58.0 51.7 28.6 37.6 47.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 39.8 56.5 55.1 100.0 56.5 48.9 41.4 52.0 63.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 41.4 43.4 59.8 106.8 61.7 54.7 29.3 37.2 46.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 44.5 40.2 49.2 91.7 50.7 46.8 30.9 39.8 49.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 44.3 48.1 56.4 108.7 63.2 55.7 28.5 38.8 50.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 29.0 39.6 47.9 90.2 49.8 45.1 29.5 39.8 51.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 53.5 72.9 60.9 95.8 52.7 46.7 55.1 70.3 87.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 25.4 41.9 49.0 106.2 61.4 54.2 25.7 34.7 45.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------