***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2012.-02.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 9999.0 4.2 5.6 3.1 82.5 80.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 3.4 4.5 5.3 3.2 84.6 81.7 -0.5 1.0 2.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 12 88 100 4.9 5.9 5.4 3.1 83.4 81.1 1.2 2.7 4.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 -0.9 -0.5 1.7 1.9 73.2 71.3 -4.5 -2.9 -1.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 2.8 3.5 3.3 2.3 76.8 74.6 -1.1 0.6 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 2.1 2.5 0.7 1.8 73.5 72.1 -1.8 -0.1 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 3.0 4.1 5.4 3.3 84.8 81.9 -0.5 0.9 2.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 -1.8 -1.4 2.2 2.5 78.6 77.5 -5.9 -4.3 -2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 3.4 4.0 3.9 2.5 78.4 76.5 -0.1 1.3 2.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 3.2 3.7 2.9 2.6 78.7 77.3 -0.8 0.8 2.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 2.6 3.1 2.8 2.1 75.2 73.6 -1.4 0.4 2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.3 77.1 75.8 -2.2 -0.4 1.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 2.3 2.9 2.4 2.2 76.0 74.5 -1.6 0.1 1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 3.5 4.6 4.5 3.5 85.8 83.9 0.1 1.4 2.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 2.6 2.6 2.2 1.5 68.4 67.4 -0.8 0.8 2.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 3.3 3.8 2.2 2.0 74.1 72.4 -0.4 1.3 2.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 2.7 3.8 5.1 3.3 85.5 82.3 -0.7 0.6 1.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 1.5 2.1 2.4 2.8 80.7 79.2 -2.8 -1.1 0.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 3.3 4.3 5.2 3.2 84.6 82.0 -0.3 1.1 2.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 -0.2 1.0 1.2 3.0 82.4 81.2 -6.0 -3.8 -1.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 3.2 4.0 4.8 2.7 80.0 77.8 -0.4 1.1 2.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 2.8 3.9 5.2 3.4 86.0 83.1 -0.7 0.6 1.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 3.2 4.1 4.9 3.2 84.7 82.5 -0.3 1.0 2.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 2.9 3.6 3.9 3.0 82.8 81.0 -0.1 1.1 2.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 3.6 4.4 4.1 2.8 79.9 77.8 -0.3 1.3 2.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 2.6 3.0 2.4 2.3 76.3 75.1 -1.1 0.4 1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 4.1 5.2 4.9 3.0 81.7 79.2 -0.3 1.5 3.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.5 69.7 68.0 -2.0 -0.3 1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 1.0 1.7 1.9 3.0 82.4 81.1 -3.3 -1.7 -0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 3.6 4.7 5.5 3.2 84.4 81.7 -0.2 1.3 2.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------