***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2012.-09.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 1.2 2.6 1.4 67.1 63.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 0.8 0.6 1.9 1.3 65.8 62.1 -2.0 -0.6 0.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 2.6 2.4 2.2 1.4 67.1 62.9 -0.2 1.1 2.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 -1.8 -2.5 0.0 1.3 63.3 61.3 -5.4 -3.8 -2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 0.6 0.1 0.6 1.5 65.9 62.8 -2.7 -1.2 0.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 0.2 -0.3 -0.6 1.5 67.0 64.6 -3.2 -1.7 -0.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 0.8 0.6 1.9 1.3 66.1 62.3 -1.9 -0.6 0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 -3.4 -3.5 0.2 1.8 69.5 65.8 -6.4 -5.0 -3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 1.1 0.9 1.4 1.6 66.9 63.1 -1.6 -0.4 0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 0.7 0.5 0.7 1.7 68.4 64.6 -2.2 -0.9 0.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 0.8 0.5 0.7 1.7 67.9 64.4 -2.4 -1.0 0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 0.2 0.1 0.7 1.9 69.7 66.2 -3.0 -1.5 -0.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 0.8 0.7 0.4 1.9 69.5 66.0 -2.8 -1.2 0.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.4 67.4 63.3 -1.0 0.1 1.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 0.7 -0.1 0.2 1.0 61.1 60.0 -2.2 -0.9 0.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 1.3 1.1 0.3 1.7 67.8 64.6 -1.8 -0.4 1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 -0.5 0.1 1.6 1.1 64.0 60.7 -2.2 -0.9 0.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 -0.6 -0.6 0.5 1.9 69.7 65.5 -3.6 -2.3 -1.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 0.9 0.7 1.9 1.3 66.2 62.3 -1.7 -0.5 0.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 -3.1 -3.0 -0.6 1.9 70.9 66.7 -7.1 -5.3 -3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 0.9 0.7 2.1 1.5 66.7 62.8 -2.0 -0.6 0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 -0.4 0.3 1.6 1.2 64.6 61.0 -2.1 -0.8 0.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 0.9 0.7 1.9 1.3 66.7 62.5 -1.7 -0.5 0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 0.7 0.6 1.3 1.6 68.4 64.1 -1.8 -0.7 0.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 1.0 0.6 1.0 1.4 65.8 62.6 -1.8 -0.5 0.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.9 70.6 67.5 -2.3 -1.0 0.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 1.3 1.1 1.9 1.5 67.1 63.3 -2.0 -0.5 1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 -0.3 -1.0 0.1 1.2 62.6 61.0 -3.3 -2.0 -0.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 -1.4 -1.3 0.1 2.0 70.8 66.5 -4.5 -3.1 -1.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 1.1 1.0 2.1 1.3 66.5 62.7 -1.8 -0.4 0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------