***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2012.-23.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 6.0 6.5 0.5 59.0 57.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.7 6.2 0.6 59.5 57.9 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.0 7.2 6.8 0.6 60.4 58.1 5.6 6.6 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 1.7 1.4 4.3 0.1 51.9 52.0 0.3 1.3 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 6.7 6.7 5.4 0.4 56.5 55.2 5.3 6.3 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 6.2 6.3 4.7 0.5 57.5 56.5 4.9 5.9 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.3 5.5 6.0 0.5 59.2 57.8 4.0 5.0 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 0.9 1.0 4.9 0.5 57.7 55.9 -0.5 0.5 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.3 7.5 6.3 0.5 58.5 56.6 5.9 7.0 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.7 5.6 0.5 58.6 56.5 5.3 6.2 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 6.8 6.9 5.5 0.5 58.1 56.5 5.5 6.5 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 6.9 7.0 5.3 0.5 57.9 56.4 5.5 6.6 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 6.7 7.0 5.3 0.6 59.4 57.9 5.4 6.4 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 7.3 7.6 6.6 0.7 61.5 58.2 5.9 6.9 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.1 4.5 0.0 50.1 50.9 4.2 5.1 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 7.3 7.5 5.3 0.6 58.6 57.0 5.9 7.0 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 5.0 5.1 5.8 0.5 58.3 56.8 3.8 4.7 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 4.6 4.8 5.5 0.6 59.8 57.0 3.4 4.3 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.3 6.5 0.6 60.4 58.3 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 3.8 4.0 3.7 0.5 58.6 56.0 2.5 3.5 4.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 6.9 7.0 6.5 0.5 58.4 56.5 5.6 6.6 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.8 6.1 0.5 59.1 57.1 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 6.1 6.3 6.8 0.7 61.5 58.8 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 7.5 7.7 6.5 0.7 61.0 57.9 6.0 7.1 8.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.8 5.1 0.3 55.7 54.7 4.5 5.5 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 6.2 6.3 4.8 0.4 57.3 56.3 5.0 6.0 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.8 6.9 5.9 0.5 58.0 56.5 5.4 6.4 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.8 4.6 0.1 51.8 52.0 4.8 5.7 6.6 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 3.7 4.0 4.9 0.6 60.9 57.8 2.5 3.4 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.7 5.8 6.4 0.6 59.9 58.1 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------