***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2012.-02.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 9999.0 10.7 11.1 3.3 83.2 79.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 9.5 11.0 11.0 3.5 84.4 80.8 5.6 7.3 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 11.0 12.6 11.7 3.6 84.9 81.2 6.8 8.5 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 4.5 5.2 7.8 2.4 77.3 73.2 0.5 2.2 3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 10.9 12.0 10.1 3.2 81.7 78.3 6.6 8.4 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 10.3 11.1 9.2 3.0 80.4 78.1 6.1 7.8 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 9.5 10.9 10.8 3.4 83.8 80.6 5.5 7.2 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 4.3 5.1 9.2 3.0 81.0 79.2 0.4 1.9 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 11.6 13.0 11.4 3.6 83.9 80.8 7.2 9.0 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 10.7 11.9 10.4 3.4 83.0 80.6 6.5 8.2 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 11.3 12.4 10.4 3.3 81.7 79.2 6.6 8.5 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 11.1 11.8 9.6 2.9 80.3 78.5 6.8 8.5 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 11.7 12.6 10.3 3.2 81.8 80.1 6.6 8.6 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 11.5 13.1 12.1 4.2 86.4 83.7 7.0 8.7 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 8.3 8.7 8.3 2.2 76.2 72.7 5.2 6.6 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 11.9 13.0 10.3 3.3 82.4 79.8 7.3 9.1 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 8.8 10.2 10.5 3.5 84.2 80.8 4.9 6.5 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 8.5 9.6 10.4 3.6 83.6 81.6 4.7 6.2 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 10.0 11.6 11.4 3.7 85.4 81.8 6.0 7.6 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 7.9 8.7 8.1 2.9 81.0 79.7 3.2 5.1 6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 11.1 12.4 11.5 3.5 83.2 79.7 6.8 8.6 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 9.5 11.1 11.0 3.8 85.7 82.3 5.6 7.2 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 10.2 11.8 11.8 4.0 86.8 83.4 6.1 7.7 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 11.8 13.3 11.7 3.9 85.3 82.5 7.5 9.2 10.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 9.7 10.6 9.7 3.0 80.9 77.3 5.8 7.4 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 10.6 10.9 8.5 2.3 77.0 75.7 6.8 8.3 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 10.9 12.1 10.6 3.2 82.3 79.0 6.8 8.5 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 8.9 9.6 8.4 2.4 76.7 72.9 5.4 6.9 8.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 8.0 9.2 9.8 3.6 84.5 82.9 3.6 5.3 6.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 9.7 11.1 11.2 3.5 84.4 80.8 5.8 7.4 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------