***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2012.-16.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 2.1 4.3 -1.3 36.1 42.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.7 2.6 3.9 -1.4 35.4 42.9 2.3 3.9 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.0 3.9 4.5 -1.3 36.7 43.2 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 -2.4 -1.4 2.4 -1.5 34.2 40.8 -1.6 0.3 2.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 2.7 3.6 3.1 -1.4 35.6 41.7 3.3 5.2 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.6 3.5 2.6 -1.2 38.1 44.2 2.9 4.7 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 1.4 2.3 3.8 -1.4 35.1 42.6 2.1 3.8 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -2.5 -1.6 2.9 -1.2 37.2 43.1 -2.0 -0.4 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.2 4.2 3.9 -1.4 36.2 42.2 3.8 5.7 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 2.7 3.7 3.4 -1.3 37.1 42.9 3.3 5.0 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 2.9 4.0 3.2 -1.3 37.0 42.9 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.8 4.0 3.3 -1.2 37.4 43.6 3.4 5.4 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.8 3.9 3.0 -1.1 38.4 44.6 3.3 5.2 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 2.8 4.0 4.1 -1.3 37.4 43.5 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 2.1 3.0 2.5 -1.5 33.4 40.8 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.3 4.3 3.0 -1.2 37.5 43.4 3.8 5.7 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 1.4 2.1 3.6 -1.5 34.5 41.9 2.0 3.5 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 1.4 2.3 3.3 -1.2 38.3 43.7 1.8 3.2 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 2.1 3.0 4.1 -1.4 36.1 43.3 2.7 4.5 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 0.1 1.3 1.7 -1.1 38.3 43.7 0.7 2.5 4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.1 4.0 4.2 -1.4 35.9 42.2 3.7 5.5 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.0 2.7 3.8 -1.5 34.8 41.9 2.5 4.1 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.2 3.1 4.4 -1.3 37.1 43.6 2.7 4.4 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.1 4.3 4.1 -1.3 37.8 43.6 3.7 5.6 7.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 2.4 3.1 2.9 -1.4 35.1 41.4 2.9 4.6 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.6 3.6 2.9 -1.1 38.2 44.6 3.1 4.7 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.9 3.8 3.6 -1.3 35.9 42.3 3.5 5.2 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 2.2 3.2 2.6 -1.5 34.4 41.2 3.1 4.9 6.6 28 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 -0.3 0.8 2.7 -1.1 39.0 44.2 0.3 1.9 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 1.9 2.7 4.1 -1.4 35.9 43.1 2.4 4.1 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------