***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2012.-23.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 2.8 3.6 -0.6 43.5 46.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 4.8 3.6 3.4 -0.5 44.0 47.6 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 6.6 5.3 3.9 -0.5 44.8 47.5 4.0 5.9 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 1.3 -0.3 1.7 -0.9 40.4 42.9 -1.1 0.7 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.8 4.3 2.3 -0.7 42.0 44.6 3.3 5.1 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 5.2 3.9 1.5 -0.7 42.7 45.4 2.9 4.7 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.4 3.2 3.2 -0.6 43.2 47.2 2.1 3.8 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -0.3 -1.3 1.9 -0.5 44.1 46.7 -2.2 -0.8 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.5 5.0 3.1 -0.7 43.1 45.6 3.8 5.8 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 5.7 4.4 2.5 -0.6 43.6 46.1 3.3 5.1 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 6.1 4.7 2.3 -0.7 42.9 45.5 3.6 5.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 6.1 4.8 2.3 -0.6 43.8 46.5 3.6 5.4 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 5.9 4.5 1.8 -0.6 43.2 46.1 3.3 5.2 7.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 7.1 5.7 3.4 -0.5 45.1 47.2 4.2 6.3 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.4 3.0 2.0 -0.8 40.1 42.3 2.3 3.8 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.4 5.0 2.0 -0.7 42.9 45.5 3.9 5.8 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.4 3.1 3.2 -0.6 42.6 46.5 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 3.5 2.5 2.4 -0.5 45.0 47.2 1.4 2.9 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.6 4.4 3.6 -0.5 44.7 47.8 3.1 4.9 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 2.8 1.8 0.9 -0.4 46.1 48.3 0.3 2.2 3.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.2 4.9 3.5 -0.6 43.3 45.9 3.7 5.6 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 5.0 3.7 3.4 -0.5 43.7 46.9 2.7 4.3 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.4 4.2 3.9 -0.4 45.2 47.7 3.0 4.7 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 6.6 5.4 3.4 -0.5 45.2 47.4 4.0 5.9 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 4.8 3.5 2.2 -0.8 41.1 44.0 2.7 4.3 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 5.0 4.0 1.8 -0.5 44.3 46.9 2.9 4.5 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 6.1 4.7 2.9 -0.7 42.4 45.6 3.7 5.5 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.4 3.7 2.0 -0.8 40.9 43.2 2.9 4.7 6.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 3.0 1.9 1.8 -0.4 45.5 47.7 0.5 2.4 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 4.8 3.6 3.6 -0.5 44.4 47.7 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------