***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2012.-02.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 4.5 9.8 66.7 47.6 41.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.9 5.7 10.2 72.5 50.0 44.0 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.2 5.6 8.8 60.3 42.2 37.6 3.8 7.5 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.4 9.4 11.2 66.8 45.7 40.2 6.4 10.6 16.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.6 4.8 9.0 57.6 38.9 34.7 3.6 7.3 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.5 5.3 8.7 62.0 45.0 40.0 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.5 6.4 11.2 80.5 53.4 46.4 2.9 5.7 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.8 8.9 10.0 60.9 40.3 36.7 7.2 11.4 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 3.0 3.7 7.8 51.7 34.8 31.5 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 4.2 5.2 8.1 52.0 34.8 31.9 4.8 8.9 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 4.0 5.0 8.0 54.2 37.7 33.8 4.1 8.1 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 4.6 6.6 8.9 60.4 41.1 36.7 4.7 9.1 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 4.6 6.4 9.0 61.9 41.6 37.3 4.8 8.2 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 4.4 5.2 8.3 51.1 36.0 32.8 4.5 8.9 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 14.4 12.2 13.4 77.9 53.3 46.8 5.1 10.7 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.0 5.5 8.8 60.4 41.9 37.3 3.8 7.3 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 7.6 6.7 11.1 81.1 54.0 47.7 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 4.7 5.8 9.2 55.3 36.5 33.7 5.2 9.2 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.3 5.2 9.3 65.1 46.0 40.6 2.8 6.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 13.3 11.0 18.3 80.6 51.6 47.5 5.6 10.5 17.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 4.0 5.2 8.4 56.3 39.4 35.2 4.0 7.6 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.1 6.0 10.3 71.2 48.6 43.0 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.3 4.2 8.6 58.5 42.1 37.6 2.8 5.9 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 4.6 5.4 8.1 51.8 35.1 32.3 5.0 9.0 14.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.3 5.5 11.2 68.8 47.5 41.1 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 7.0 6.5 12.5 80.7 53.2 49.1 3.2 5.9 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 9.4 6.6 11.0 70.6 48.9 42.2 3.5 6.7 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.3 8.3 10.7 65.7 46.1 40.3 5.2 9.4 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.0 10.1 11.4 63.3 41.6 38.2 7.4 13.2 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 8.3 5.9 10.1 71.0 49.1 43.1 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------