***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2012.-09.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 9999.0 12.7 16.4 130.2 72.7 66.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 10.8 11.2 15.5 123.0 70.5 63.9 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 12.9 14.1 16.3 130.1 72.7 67.1 3.3 6.6 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 14.5 17.3 18.7 140.2 75.6 68.8 4.1 7.7 12.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 13.9 14.9 16.9 132.3 73.3 66.6 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 11.1 13.0 19.1 135.4 74.2 65.9 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 11.1 11.5 15.5 123.4 70.7 63.6 3.3 6.1 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 15.9 16.6 17.9 122.5 70.3 63.0 4.7 8.9 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 11.2 11.5 16.0 124.7 70.9 64.1 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 13.1 13.5 17.0 122.6 70.3 63.4 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 13.4 14.6 16.2 130.7 72.8 65.3 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 14.9 15.8 16.4 125.8 71.3 63.5 3.3 7.2 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 14.5 16.9 18.2 133.6 73.7 65.7 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 17.3 17.6 18.5 126.9 71.7 65.0 4.6 8.9 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 16.7 21.2 20.8 147.7 77.3 70.5 2.7 6.7 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 12.4 14.2 17.0 133.5 73.7 65.9 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 13.2 13.0 14.9 119.2 69.3 60.9 4.2 7.5 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 45 55 100 11.6 11.9 18.7 119.3 69.2 62.6 3.6 6.6 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 11.9 12.5 15.7 124.4 70.9 64.7 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 45 55 100 13.1 14.4 25.3 126.2 71.4 64.7 4.5 7.9 12.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 11.9 12.8 16.0 127.2 71.8 65.6 3.9 6.9 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 9.7 14.2 15.5 121.8 70.0 61.9 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 12.1 12.6 16.2 125.8 71.3 65.2 3.4 6.4 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 14.6 15.2 17.5 124.6 70.9 64.5 4.7 8.3 13.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 10.2 11.2 18.1 133.1 73.6 68.2 3.2 5.7 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 14.4 17.2 19.7 140.4 75.5 66.8 3.8 7.3 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 12.4 13.4 17.5 130.1 72.7 67.0 3.9 6.9 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 11.8 14.8 19.0 142.2 75.9 68.8 2.4 5.4 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 16.8 17.5 21.2 121.3 69.9 63.0 5.8 10.0 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 11.0 11.4 15.8 125.6 71.4 65.5 3.6 6.2 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------