***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2012.-23.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 7.7 8.9 82.6 54.0 46.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.9 6.8 8.1 80.4 54.0 46.0 3.8 6.2 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 10.9 9.6 9.2 84.5 54.5 47.1 5.1 8.6 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.3 12.5 10.0 93.1 59.3 50.9 6.3 10.0 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.1 13.1 10.4 92.1 58.5 50.4 6.6 10.7 15.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 6.1 14.9 12.8 119.0 68.9 56.5 6.3 9.8 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.4 7.8 8.2 82.0 55.4 47.2 4.3 6.9 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.1 16.5 12.2 95.5 59.8 50.3 8.4 13.2 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.7 10.9 90.5 57.4 49.5 4.6 7.3 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.9 11.8 91.6 57.8 49.5 5.5 9.0 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 5.5 10.8 10.3 93.5 59.0 50.2 5.3 8.6 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.3 10.8 11.0 99.6 61.7 51.6 5.2 8.2 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 7.5 15.3 12.0 107.3 64.7 54.8 7.4 11.2 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.6 10.9 10.7 81.3 52.4 46.1 6.5 10.3 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 4.3 10.6 9.3 93.2 60.2 49.9 4.0 7.6 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 6.5 12.8 10.8 101.1 62.5 53.0 6.4 9.8 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.2 8.2 8.0 81.3 55.2 45.6 4.1 7.0 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.6 12.8 88.7 56.1 48.3 4.5 7.4 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.4 6.3 8.2 79.6 52.9 45.2 3.3 5.8 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.5 15.7 90.0 57.4 48.6 6.8 10.6 15.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.7 10.1 88.4 56.6 49.0 4.9 8.2 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.6 6.9 8.2 79.6 53.7 44.5 3.7 6.2 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.4 5.9 8.7 79.0 51.4 44.6 3.3 5.6 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.8 9.6 11.1 85.8 54.8 47.6 4.5 8.2 13.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 10.7 9.8 10.3 88.0 56.6 49.0 4.3 8.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.9 13.2 12.0 108.7 65.2 54.0 5.8 9.2 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 9.6 8.3 9.7 84.7 55.0 47.5 3.7 7.0 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 5.0 10.5 9.9 97.5 61.3 51.5 4.7 7.8 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.6 16.5 13.9 87.8 56.0 47.9 9.2 14.4 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.8 6.9 8.3 80.8 54.0 46.5 3.9 6.3 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------