***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2018.-09.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 -2.3 -2.7 -1.7 -2.8 19.7 26.7 -1.4 -0.1 1.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 -2.7 -2.8 -1.6 -2.3 24.6 30.1 -2.0 -0.6 0.6 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 -0.9 -1.3 -1.6 -2.7 20.9 28.0 -0.2 1.1 2.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 -6.4 -7.3 -4.6 -3.1 17.5 25.6 -5.4 -3.8 -2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 -3.3 -4.0 -3.6 -3.0 19.8 26.9 -2.7 -1.2 0.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 -3.8 -4.8 -5.5 -3.0 17.4 27.0 -3.2 -1.7 -0.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 -2.6 -2.6 -1.5 -2.3 25.1 30.3 -1.9 -0.6 0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 -7.0 -7.3 -4.9 -2.6 22.7 29.9 -6.4 -5.0 -3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 -2.2 -2.8 -3.3 -2.8 19.8 27.5 -1.6 -0.4 0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 -2.7 -3.2 -4.4 -2.7 21.8 29.3 -2.2 -0.9 0.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 -3.1 -3.9 -4.1 -3.0 18.7 26.7 -2.4 -1.0 0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 -3.7 -4.3 -4.5 -2.9 20.3 27.9 -3.0 -1.5 -0.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 -3.5 -4.5 -4.6 -3.0 18.4 27.5 -2.8 -1.2 0.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 -1.2 -1.7 -3.3 -2.5 23.8 32.0 -1.0 0.1 1.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 -3.1 -4.1 -3.4 -3.2 14.3 23.4 -2.2 -0.9 0.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 -2.6 -3.4 -4.7 -3.2 17.1 25.8 -1.8 -0.4 1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 -2.7 -2.7 -1.5 -2.2 26.4 31.4 -2.2 -0.9 0.3 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 -4.0 -4.4 -4.8 -2.4 25.1 32.3 -3.6 -2.3 -1.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 -2.4 -2.5 -1.6 -2.3 23.8 29.8 -1.7 -0.5 0.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 -7.6 -7.7 -5.5 -2.3 27.8 33.0 -7.1 -5.3 -3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 -2.5 -3.1 -2.2 -2.8 20.7 28.0 -2.0 -0.6 0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 -2.6 -2.7 -1.5 -2.2 25.5 30.5 -2.1 -0.8 0.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 -2.2 -2.5 -1.8 -2.4 22.7 29.6 -1.7 -0.5 0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 -2.1 -2.5 -3.3 -2.5 24.2 32.0 -1.8 -0.7 0.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 -2.3 -2.9 -2.5 -2.8 20.5 27.2 -1.8 -0.5 0.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 -2.9 -3.3 -4.4 -2.8 20.7 28.6 -2.3 -1.0 0.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 -2.9 -3.3 -1.9 -2.8 21.2 27.6 -2.0 -0.5 1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 -4.2 -5.2 -4.6 -3.4 15.0 24.1 -3.3 -2.0 -0.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 -4.9 -5.2 -5.3 -2.4 25.8 32.5 -4.5 -3.1 -1.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 -2.4 -2.7 -1.5 -2.4 23.2 29.0 -1.8 -0.4 0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------