***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2018.-16.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 -3.2 -2.8 -2.2 -1.7 32.2 39.2 -2.7 -1.1 0.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 -3.8 -3.2 -2.2 -1.5 32.3 39.1 -3.1 -1.5 0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 -1.7 -1.4 -2.2 -1.6 31.9 39.1 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -7.4 -7.1 -5.3 -1.8 31.8 38.5 -7.0 -5.3 -3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 -3.7 -3.3 -4.7 -1.7 33.2 39.8 -3.3 -1.7 -0.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 -1.7 -3.8 -6.1 -1.6 34.6 40.8 -3.9 -2.4 -0.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 -3.8 -3.3 -2.0 -1.5 32.7 39.5 -3.3 -1.6 0.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -5.8 -7.7 -5.9 -1.6 34.8 41.1 -7.9 -6.4 -5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 -2.9 -2.5 -4.1 -1.6 33.9 40.5 -2.6 -1.0 0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 -3.3 -2.9 -5.3 -1.6 34.8 40.9 -3.1 -1.6 -0.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 -3.7 -3.2 -5.2 -1.7 34.0 40.1 -3.3 -1.6 -0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 -4.1 -3.7 -5.6 -1.6 34.8 41.0 -3.9 -2.4 -1.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 -4.0 -3.4 -5.6 -1.5 36.0 41.4 -3.7 -2.0 -0.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 -3.0 -2.3 -4.1 -1.5 34.1 40.2 -2.4 -1.0 0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 -3.1 -2.8 -4.3 -1.8 31.0 37.5 -2.7 -1.4 -0.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 -3.0 -2.4 -5.6 -1.7 34.2 40.1 -2.6 -1.1 0.3 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 -4.1 -3.3 -2.0 -1.5 33.1 39.9 -3.3 -1.7 -0.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 -2.5 -4.5 -5.9 -1.5 35.8 41.3 -4.7 -3.2 -1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 -3.5 -2.9 -2.2 -1.5 32.1 38.8 -2.8 -1.3 0.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -5.0 -7.1 -6.6 -1.5 36.2 42.0 -7.5 -5.7 -4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 -3.2 -2.9 -3.0 -1.7 32.4 39.6 -2.9 -1.3 0.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 -4.1 -3.2 -2.3 -1.5 31.9 38.7 -3.1 -1.6 -0.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 -3.8 -3.1 -2.4 -1.5 32.3 39.0 -3.1 -1.5 0.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 -3.5 -3.0 -4.4 -1.5 34.3 40.6 -3.1 -1.6 -0.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 -3.4 -3.1 -3.6 -1.7 32.1 39.0 -3.0 -1.4 0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 -1.2 -3.0 -5.5 -1.4 36.7 43.1 -3.3 -1.8 -0.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 -3.5 -3.0 -2.6 -1.7 32.9 39.7 -3.0 -1.2 0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 -4.5 -4.2 -5.2 -1.8 32.2 38.8 -4.1 -2.5 -1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 -3.8 -5.7 -6.1 -1.5 35.9 41.4 -5.9 -4.4 -3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 -3.5 -3.0 -2.2 -1.6 32.2 39.1 -2.9 -1.3 0.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------