***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2018.-23.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 -1.8 -2.1 -1.5 -2.0 19.0 26.2 -1.3 -0.5 0.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 -2.0 -2.4 -1.7 -1.8 20.0 26.9 -1.6 -0.8 0.0 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 -0.2 -0.6 -1.6 -2.0 18.4 26.0 0.3 1.0 1.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 -6.0 -6.5 -4.8 -2.4 14.6 21.7 -5.2 -4.3 -3.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 -2.6 -3.0 -3.7 -2.1 18.2 25.3 -2.0 -1.1 -0.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 -3.2 -3.4 -5.4 -1.9 20.5 27.2 -2.7 -1.8 -0.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 -2.1 -2.4 -1.5 -1.8 20.6 27.7 -1.6 -0.8 -0.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 -7.2 -7.3 -5.0 -1.8 22.2 28.8 -6.6 -5.7 -4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 -1.6 -1.8 -3.2 -1.9 20.6 28.1 -1.2 -0.4 0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 -2.2 -2.4 -4.4 -1.8 21.8 28.8 -1.8 -0.9 -0.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 -2.5 -2.8 -4.2 -2.0 19.6 26.6 -2.0 -1.1 -0.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 -3.1 -3.3 -4.6 -2.0 20.7 27.5 -2.6 -1.8 -1.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 -2.9 -3.0 -4.6 -1.8 22.2 28.9 -2.3 -1.3 -0.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 -1.3 -1.4 -3.3 -1.7 22.4 30.0 -0.9 -0.1 0.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 77 23 0 100 -2.6 -3.2 -3.4 -2.3 14.5 21.7 -1.9 -1.0 -0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 -1.7 -2.1 -4.7 -2.1 19.2 26.2 -1.2 -0.4 0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 -2.3 -2.5 -1.7 -1.8 20.8 27.8 -1.9 -1.1 -0.3 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 -4.3 -4.4 -5.0 -1.8 23.0 29.7 -3.7 -2.7 -1.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 -1.9 -2.2 -1.7 -1.8 19.9 26.8 -1.4 -0.7 0.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 -7.1 -7.0 -5.6 -1.6 25.8 31.6 -6.4 -5.3 -4.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 -1.9 -2.3 -2.2 -2.0 19.0 26.7 -1.4 -0.6 0.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 -2.2 -2.4 -1.7 -1.8 20.8 27.1 -1.8 -1.0 -0.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 -2.0 -2.2 -1.8 -1.8 20.6 27.8 -1.5 -0.8 0.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 -1.9 -2.1 -3.5 -1.7 22.1 29.4 -1.6 -0.8 -0.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 -2.1 -2.4 -2.6 -2.0 18.7 25.6 -1.5 -0.6 0.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 -2.6 -2.7 -4.6 -1.8 22.5 29.9 -2.1 -1.2 -0.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 -1.8 -2.0 -1.8 -1.9 20.6 27.5 -1.3 -0.3 0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 -3.5 -4.1 -4.7 -2.5 14.0 21.3 -2.9 -2.1 -1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 -4.7 -4.6 -5.3 -1.7 24.8 31.1 -4.2 -3.3 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 -1.8 -2.1 -1.6 -1.9 19.6 26.6 -1.3 -0.5 0.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------