***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2018.-09.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 3.8 3.8 4.1 -2.2 27.9 32.6 4.4 6.3 8.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.1 3.4 4.4 -1.8 31.5 36.0 3.6 5.3 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.3 4.3 4.5 -2.2 29.5 34.4 4.8 6.7 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 -0.8 -1.0 0.8 -2.6 25.9 31.1 0.0 2.0 3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 4.2 4.1 2.4 -2.5 26.8 31.6 4.8 6.7 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 3.7 3.7 1.7 -2.6 25.8 30.6 4.5 6.3 7.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.1 3.3 4.3 -1.9 30.7 35.0 3.5 5.1 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -0.9 -0.8 2.4 -2.1 29.6 34.4 -0.4 1.4 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 4.8 4.9 3.4 -2.4 28.1 32.9 5.5 7.4 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.3 4.3 2.8 -2.3 29.2 33.9 4.7 6.5 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 4.0 3.9 2.7 -2.7 25.9 30.9 4.8 6.6 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 4.3 4.3 2.5 -2.4 26.9 32.4 5.0 6.9 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 4.0 3.7 2.5 -2.9 23.9 29.2 4.8 6.6 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.6 5.0 4.1 -2.1 31.4 36.1 5.2 7.3 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 3.2 3.0 2.1 -2.7 23.3 29.2 4.0 5.5 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 4.3 4.2 2.2 -2.8 24.4 29.6 5.3 7.2 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.8 3.2 4.3 -1.7 31.9 36.4 3.3 4.8 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 2.9 3.1 2.8 -2.2 30.9 35.3 3.4 4.9 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.3 3.6 4.5 -1.9 31.4 36.2 3.8 5.7 7.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 1.8 2.2 1.8 -1.8 32.4 36.3 2.2 4.2 6.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.3 4.3 4.0 -2.4 28.2 32.9 4.8 6.6 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.2 3.6 4.4 -1.8 31.9 36.6 3.8 5.5 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.7 4.0 4.6 -2.0 31.0 36.3 4.2 5.9 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.0 5.2 4.0 -2.2 30.7 35.3 5.5 7.5 9.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.6 3.4 2.8 -2.4 27.1 31.4 4.1 5.7 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 4.3 4.2 2.2 -2.3 25.8 31.4 4.9 6.3 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.9 3.9 3.7 -2.3 27.5 31.7 4.6 6.4 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 3.7 3.5 1.5 -2.7 25.1 30.7 4.5 6.2 7.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 1.7 2.0 2.4 -2.1 31.3 35.5 2.2 4.1 5.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.2 3.4 4.3 -2.0 30.4 35.0 3.7 5.4 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------