***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2018.-16.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 2.3 3.4 3.6 -1.2 37.2 42.5 2.9 4.6 6.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 1.7 2.8 3.6 -1.1 37.4 42.7 2.3 3.9 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 2.8 4.0 3.9 -1.2 37.1 42.2 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 -2.3 -1.5 0.6 -1.5 33.9 40.0 -1.6 0.3 2.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 2.5 3.6 1.9 -1.4 35.7 41.3 3.3 5.2 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 2.2 3.4 1.8 -1.2 37.6 42.3 2.9 4.7 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 1.5 2.5 3.6 -1.1 37.5 42.8 2.1 3.8 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 -2.6 -1.6 2.0 -1.2 37.6 41.8 -2.0 -0.4 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 2.9 4.2 2.8 -1.3 36.7 41.7 3.8 5.7 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 2.5 3.7 2.4 -1.2 37.5 41.7 3.3 5.0 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 2.7 3.8 2.0 -1.4 35.6 41.0 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 2.6 3.9 2.0 -1.2 36.5 41.6 3.4 5.4 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 2.5 3.7 1.8 -1.2 36.8 42.2 3.3 5.2 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 2.6 4.1 3.5 -1.2 38.4 42.2 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.4 3.0 1.4 -1.6 33.3 39.3 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 3.0 4.1 1.7 -1.4 35.7 41.3 3.8 5.7 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 1.4 2.5 3.7 -1.0 38.0 43.0 2.0 3.5 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 1.3 2.3 2.6 -1.2 38.0 41.7 1.8 3.2 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 2.0 3.1 3.8 -1.2 37.3 42.4 2.7 4.5 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 0.4 1.4 1.5 -1.0 39.6 43.2 0.7 2.5 4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 3.0 4.1 3.4 -1.3 36.8 41.9 3.7 5.5 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 1.7 2.9 3.6 -1.1 37.2 42.2 2.5 4.1 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 2.0 3.2 4.1 -1.2 37.7 42.3 2.7 4.4 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 2.8 4.2 3.3 -1.3 37.3 41.5 3.7 5.6 7.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 2.2 3.2 2.1 -1.3 36.2 41.6 2.9 4.6 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.7 3.5 1.8 -1.1 37.7 43.6 3.1 4.7 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.9 3.9 3.2 -1.2 37.1 42.2 3.5 5.2 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.4 3.2 1.0 -1.6 34.0 39.9 3.1 4.9 6.6 28 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 -0.3 0.8 2.3 -1.1 38.3 42.1 0.3 1.9 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 1.8 2.9 3.6 -1.1 37.2 42.6 2.4 4.1 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------