***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2018.-23.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.1 3.9 3.8 -0.2 48.0 49.2 2.4 4.1 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.1 4.0 3.7 -0.2 48.4 50.2 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.6 5.9 4.3 0.0 49.7 50.3 4.0 5.9 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -1.4 0.4 1.0 -0.3 47.1 48.2 -1.1 0.7 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.0 5.0 2.3 -0.2 48.4 49.3 3.3 5.1 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.5 4.3 1.8 -0.4 46.0 48.1 2.9 4.7 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 1.6 3.6 3.7 -0.2 48.0 50.0 2.1 3.8 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -2.6 -0.9 2.3 -0.1 49.3 49.9 -2.2 -0.8 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.4 5.8 3.3 0.0 50.1 50.4 3.8 5.8 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.8 5.1 2.8 0.0 50.1 50.3 3.3 5.1 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.3 5.2 2.3 -0.2 47.8 49.0 3.6 5.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.1 5.2 2.3 -0.2 47.5 48.9 3.6 5.4 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.8 4.7 1.8 -0.5 45.1 47.6 3.3 5.2 7.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 3.8 6.4 4.0 0.1 50.7 50.7 4.2 6.3 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.4 3.5 1.8 -0.3 46.7 48.0 2.3 3.8 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.4 5.4 1.9 -0.3 46.5 48.2 3.9 5.8 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.9 3.7 3.8 -0.1 49.2 51.0 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 0.8 3.0 3.0 0.1 50.6 50.3 1.4 2.9 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.6 4.8 3.9 -0.1 48.9 50.3 3.1 4.9 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 -0.4 2.1 1.6 0.0 49.5 49.8 0.3 2.2 3.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.3 5.6 3.7 0.0 49.9 50.3 3.7 5.6 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.3 3.8 0.0 49.5 51.1 2.7 4.3 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.6 4.7 4.3 0.0 49.9 50.5 3.0 4.7 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.6 6.0 3.8 0.1 50.9 50.6 4.0 5.9 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.4 4.1 2.3 -0.2 47.7 48.7 2.7 4.3 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 2.4 3.9 1.6 -0.6 43.3 46.6 2.9 4.5 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.2 5.3 3.3 -0.2 47.6 48.8 3.7 5.5 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 5.5 4.4 1.4 -0.3 47.4 48.4 2.9 4.7 6.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 -0.1 2.4 2.6 0.0 50.0 50.0 0.5 2.4 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.1 4.0 3.7 -0.2 48.1 49.8 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------