***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2018.-23.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 4.1 3.8 3.7 -2.1 19.5 27.0 4.7 5.7 6.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 3.7 3.5 3.8 -2.0 21.4 29.2 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 5.0 4.7 4.0 -2.2 19.8 27.4 5.6 6.6 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 -0.4 -1.1 0.3 -2.6 15.8 22.8 0.3 1.3 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 4.7 4.2 2.0 -2.4 16.9 24.2 5.3 6.3 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 4.2 3.7 1.5 -2.4 16.9 24.1 4.9 5.9 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 3.5 3.2 3.8 -1.9 21.3 29.1 4.0 5.0 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 -1.2 -1.6 1.9 -2.2 18.5 25.9 -0.5 0.5 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 5.2 4.8 3.0 -2.3 18.4 25.9 5.9 7.0 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 4.6 4.2 2.4 -2.3 18.2 25.6 5.3 6.2 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 4.8 4.2 2.2 -2.5 16.4 23.6 5.5 6.5 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 4.9 4.4 2.1 -2.3 17.5 24.9 5.5 6.6 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 4.8 4.1 2.2 -2.4 16.8 24.0 5.4 6.4 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 5.3 5.0 3.6 -2.2 20.4 27.5 5.9 6.9 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 3.7 3.2 1.6 -2.5 16.5 23.5 4.2 5.1 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 5.2 4.6 1.8 -2.5 16.0 23.2 5.9 7.0 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 3.3 3.0 3.7 -1.9 21.8 29.5 3.8 4.7 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 2.9 2.6 2.4 -2.3 18.8 26.1 3.4 4.3 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 4.2 3.9 3.9 -2.0 21.3 29.0 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 1.8 1.6 1.4 -2.0 20.8 28.1 2.5 3.5 4.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 4.9 4.5 3.5 -2.3 18.2 25.9 5.6 6.6 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 3.9 3.6 3.7 -2.0 21.4 28.8 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 4.2 4.0 4.1 -2.0 21.5 28.9 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 5.4 5.0 3.4 -2.2 19.5 26.7 6.0 7.1 8.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 3.9 3.6 2.4 -2.3 18.0 25.1 4.5 5.5 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 4.6 4.1 1.9 -2.0 18.4 26.4 5.0 6.0 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 4.8 4.5 3.3 -2.1 19.4 26.6 5.4 6.4 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 4.1 3.5 0.9 -2.6 15.8 22.9 4.8 5.7 6.6 28 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 1.9 1.6 2.1 -2.1 19.6 26.8 2.5 3.4 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 3.7 3.5 3.8 -2.0 20.9 28.6 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------