***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2018.-02.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 13.2 17.1 17.9 160.3 79.8 73.0 3.2 6.2 10.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 12.1 15.5 17.3 159.4 79.5 70.5 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 16.4 21.6 18.6 167.3 81.1 74.5 3.8 7.5 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 19.0 26.5 26.1 181.2 83.9 76.7 6.4 10.6 16.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 16.6 22.2 21.9 175.9 82.7 78.4 3.6 7.3 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 10 90 100 14.9 19.6 23.6 183.7 83.8 80.2 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 11.3 15.0 17.0 162.7 80.2 70.7 2.9 5.7 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 20.0 24.9 24.4 171.0 81.5 76.5 7.2 11.4 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 15.4 22.0 22.1 188.2 84.7 80.2 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 18.8 26.2 24.2 187.4 84.8 80.1 4.8 8.9 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 18.7 26.2 23.4 185.0 84.2 79.7 4.1 8.1 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 20.2 25.9 22.9 169.3 81.3 75.8 4.7 9.1 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 16.5 20.1 24.4 169.1 81.5 77.1 4.8 8.2 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 19.7 25.8 22.9 172.8 82.2 76.8 4.5 8.9 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 25.8 41.3 28.3 202.7 86.5 79.3 5.1 10.7 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 16.4 20.5 23.1 166.9 81.0 76.8 3.8 7.3 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 11.6 14.5 16.5 153.3 78.2 67.2 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 18.3 24.7 23.2 175.9 82.9 77.8 5.2 9.2 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 14.0 17.9 17.9 158.7 79.3 71.2 2.8 6.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 19.4 22.4 24.0 140.7 74.8 70.3 5.6 10.5 17.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 15.8 21.6 20.9 178.5 83.2 77.8 4.0 7.6 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 13.6 16.9 17.4 148.6 77.2 66.6 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 13.3 17.2 18.8 160.7 79.8 72.6 2.8 5.9 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 17.8 24.1 21.6 175.7 82.9 76.9 5.0 9.0 14.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 13.2 17.0 20.5 158.6 79.5 74.2 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 11.1 13.2 21.4 145.3 76.5 71.0 3.2 5.9 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 14.2 18.3 18.7 159.4 79.6 73.3 3.5 6.7 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 19.2 27.9 26.3 191.3 85.1 78.3 5.2 9.4 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 24.6 31.2 23.1 161.1 80.0 75.0 7.4 13.2 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 12.9 16.6 17.4 163.1 80.3 71.7 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------