***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2018.-23.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.1 8.6 10.0 88.3 58.3 48.8 4.0 6.8 10.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.8 7.7 8.8 88.2 58.7 47.5 3.8 6.2 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 5.4 10.5 9.6 87.4 58.1 48.4 5.1 8.6 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.2 10.4 85.8 58.2 48.5 6.3 10.0 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 12.8 13.6 11.1 91.4 60.1 51.2 6.6 10.7 15.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 11.5 11.5 9.8 85.0 57.3 47.4 6.3 9.8 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.3 8.6 8.8 88.7 59.3 47.6 4.3 6.9 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 15.9 16.9 12.6 95.0 60.9 51.4 8.4 13.2 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.7 9.4 11.7 93.4 60.7 52.1 4.6 7.3 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.0 12.0 12.8 97.3 61.7 52.8 5.5 9.0 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.5 11.0 10.9 90.6 59.5 50.9 5.3 8.6 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.1 10.8 88.8 58.6 49.8 5.2 8.2 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.4 12.9 10.5 84.1 56.5 47.6 7.4 11.2 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.4 11.8 87.4 57.8 48.6 6.5 10.3 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 9.9 9.7 9.7 81.3 57.5 44.8 4.0 7.6 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.5 10.1 85.0 57.2 48.4 6.4 9.8 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.2 8.9 8.4 84.6 57.9 47.0 4.1 7.0 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 9.0 10.1 13.7 100.5 62.7 53.2 4.5 7.4 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.5 7.3 9.0 87.6 58.1 47.5 3.3 5.8 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.6 14.0 17.2 99.6 62.7 51.2 6.8 10.6 15.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.7 10.9 92.4 60.2 51.3 4.9 8.2 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.8 7.5 8.7 83.5 57.1 46.2 3.7 6.2 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.0 6.9 9.6 87.4 57.7 47.8 3.3 5.6 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.6 11.4 11.8 93.9 60.3 51.0 4.5 8.2 13.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.7 11.5 92.1 59.7 50.3 4.3 8.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 11.4 10.5 10.3 80.7 55.8 46.7 5.8 9.2 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.0 9.3 10.7 89.6 58.6 49.2 3.7 7.0 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 9.6 9.5 9.6 82.5 57.4 46.8 4.7 7.8 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 17.0 19.3 14.8 100.6 62.9 52.7 9.2 14.4 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.8 7.7 9.1 88.1 58.6 47.4 3.9 6.3 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------