***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.12.2017.-10.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 -2.4 -2.1 -1.4 -2.2 28.5 31.7 -1.7 -0.3 1.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 -2.9 -2.9 -1.9 -2.4 25.7 30.4 -2.2 -0.8 0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 -1.1 -0.9 -1.5 -2.3 28.0 31.5 -0.5 0.9 2.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -6.4 -6.8 -4.5 -2.6 24.6 28.2 -5.8 -4.1 -2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 -3.3 -3.3 -3.5 -2.5 26.2 30.0 -2.7 -1.3 0.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 -4.3 -4.4 -5.9 -2.8 22.9 27.5 -3.5 -2.1 -0.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 -2.7 -2.7 -1.8 -2.3 26.9 31.1 -2.1 -0.8 0.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 -7.9 -8.4 -6.3 -3.5 18.4 24.2 -6.8 -5.4 -4.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 -2.4 -2.4 -3.4 -2.5 25.9 30.3 -1.8 -0.5 0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 -3.1 -3.4 -5.4 -3.2 20.8 26.1 -2.3 -1.1 0.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 -3.4 -3.3 -4.2 -2.7 25.0 29.4 -2.6 -1.2 0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 -4.1 -4.1 -5.1 -2.9 23.4 28.4 -3.2 -1.8 -0.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 -4.0 -3.9 -4.9 -2.7 24.7 29.3 -3.0 -1.4 0.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 -1.7 -1.9 -4.3 -2.9 23.2 28.5 -1.1 0.0 1.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 -2.7 -2.6 -2.4 -1.8 31.1 33.7 -2.4 -1.2 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 -2.9 -2.7 -4.7 -2.7 25.2 29.4 -2.0 -0.6 0.7 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 -2.9 -3.2 -2.3 -2.7 23.7 29.2 -2.4 -1.1 0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 -4.7 -5.2 -6.2 -3.4 19.5 25.5 -3.9 -2.5 -1.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 -2.7 -2.6 -2.0 -2.5 25.1 30.0 -1.9 -0.6 0.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 -8.8 -9.6 -7.5 -3.8 17.2 23.4 -7.4 -5.6 -3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 -2.7 -2.6 -2.2 -2.3 27.6 31.1 -2.1 -0.8 0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 -2.8 -3.2 -2.5 -2.8 21.7 28.0 -2.2 -1.0 0.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 -2.6 -2.6 -2.3 -2.5 24.5 29.5 -1.8 -0.6 0.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 -2.6 -2.8 -4.3 -2.9 23.1 28.2 -2.0 -0.8 0.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 -2.5 -2.4 -2.5 -2.4 26.7 30.3 -1.9 -0.7 0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 -3.2 -3.3 -4.9 -2.7 24.1 28.9 -2.5 -1.3 -0.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 -3.1 -2.9 -1.8 -2.3 28.1 31.6 -2.4 -0.8 0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 -4.0 -4.0 -4.1 -2.4 26.8 30.1 -3.5 -2.2 -0.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 -5.8 -6.5 -7.2 -3.8 17.2 23.3 -4.8 -3.3 -1.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 -2.7 -2.6 -1.7 -2.3 27.1 31.2 -2.0 -0.6 0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------