***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.11.2017.-24.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 -1.6 -1.1 -0.5 -0.7 38.9 41.1 -1.4 -0.6 0.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 -2.0 -1.6 -0.9 -1.0 34.8 38.1 -1.7 -0.9 -0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 0.0 0.3 -0.7 -0.9 36.4 39.0 0.1 0.9 1.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -5.6 -5.2 -3.6 -1.0 35.2 38.1 -5.3 -4.4 -3.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 -2.3 -1.9 -2.8 -1.0 35.9 38.4 -2.1 -1.2 -0.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 -3.0 -2.7 -4.8 -1.0 35.1 37.8 -2.8 -1.9 -1.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 -2.0 -1.6 -0.8 -0.8 36.6 39.5 -1.8 -0.9 -0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 -7.1 -6.9 -4.9 -1.4 29.7 33.6 -6.7 -5.8 -5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 -1.4 -1.1 -2.5 -0.9 36.8 39.2 -1.3 -0.5 0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 -2.2 -1.9 -4.1 -1.2 32.0 35.3 -1.9 -1.0 -0.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 -2.3 -2.0 -3.4 -1.0 35.2 37.8 -2.1 -1.2 -0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 -3.0 -2.7 -4.0 -1.2 33.8 36.8 -2.7 -1.9 -1.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 -2.6 -2.2 -4.0 -1.0 35.5 37.9 -2.4 -1.4 -0.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 -1.2 -1.0 -3.2 -1.2 32.5 35.7 -1.0 -0.2 0.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 -0.8 -1.5 -1.7 -0.4 42.7 44.2 -2.0 -1.2 -0.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 -1.5 -1.2 -3.9 -1.0 35.1 37.6 -1.3 -0.5 0.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 -2.2 -2.0 -1.1 -1.0 33.5 37.4 -2.0 -1.2 -0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 -4.2 -4.0 -4.9 -1.4 30.3 33.8 -3.8 -2.8 -1.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 -1.8 -1.5 -1.1 -1.0 33.8 37.2 -1.6 -0.8 0.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 -7.1 -6.9 -5.9 -1.5 28.4 32.4 -6.6 -5.4 -4.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 -1.7 -1.3 -1.3 -0.8 38.0 40.2 -1.5 -0.7 0.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 -2.2 -2.0 -1.3 -1.2 31.3 35.8 -1.9 -1.1 -0.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 -2.0 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 32.7 36.3 -1.7 -0.9 -0.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 -1.9 -1.7 -3.3 -1.2 32.4 35.6 -1.7 -1.0 -0.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 -1.8 -1.3 -1.6 -0.8 38.1 40.4 -1.6 -0.7 0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 -2.4 -2.2 -4.1 -1.1 34.0 37.0 -2.2 -1.3 -0.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 -1.5 -1.0 -0.9 -0.7 39.2 41.6 -1.4 -0.5 0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 -3.1 -2.8 -3.2 -0.8 37.3 39.8 -3.0 -2.2 -1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 -4.7 -4.5 -5.5 -1.5 29.1 32.5 -4.3 -3.5 -2.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 -1.7 -1.3 -0.8 -0.9 35.9 38.8 -1.4 -0.6 0.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------