***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.11.2017.-03.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 92 8 0 100 4.1 4.3 4.8 -2.9 19.4 21.3 5.9 7.5 9.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 3.6 3.4 4.5 -3.4 15.2 16.8 5.5 7.0 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 92 8 0 100 4.8 4.8 4.9 -3.3 18.3 20.0 6.6 8.2 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 -1.1 -0.6 2.0 -2.4 25.9 27.5 0.2 2.0 3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 5.0 5.3 3.8 -2.7 23.6 25.9 6.3 8.0 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 4.9 4.7 2.8 -2.8 22.4 25.7 5.9 7.5 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 95 5 0 100 3.6 3.3 4.5 -3.3 15.5 17.2 5.3 6.9 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 -0.9 -1.7 2.0 -3.9 15.1 17.9 0.4 1.9 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 82 18 0 100 5.6 5.7 4.5 -2.9 22.0 24.2 7.0 8.7 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 84 16 0 100 5.0 4.6 2.9 -3.7 17.6 20.0 6.4 8.1 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 5.1 5.1 4.2 -2.9 22.8 25.2 6.3 8.1 9.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 5.3 4.7 3.0 -3.2 18.8 21.8 6.5 8.2 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 5.1 4.6 4.0 -3.3 19.8 23.1 6.4 8.2 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 95 5 0 100 4.9 4.7 3.7 -4.1 15.7 17.1 6.8 8.5 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 4.9 5.1 4.6 -1.6 31.4 32.6 5.2 6.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 5.8 5.8 3.7 -2.9 22.9 25.6 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 96 4 0 100 3.0 2.6 3.9 -3.5 14.2 15.6 4.8 6.3 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 89 11 0 100 3.1 2.8 2.2 -4.1 15.8 18.0 4.6 6.0 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 97 3 0 100 3.9 3.8 4.6 -3.4 15.9 17.4 5.8 7.3 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 1.3 0.3 0.8 -4.3 13.2 15.9 3.0 4.8 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 86 14 0 100 5.0 5.2 5.1 -3.0 20.9 22.9 6.6 8.2 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 97 3 0 100 3.6 3.4 4.1 -3.5 14.8 16.1 5.4 6.9 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 95 5 0 100 4.2 4.2 4.7 -3.4 17.2 18.6 5.9 7.4 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 91 9 0 100 5.6 5.4 3.9 -3.9 16.5 18.3 7.3 8.9 10.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 4.4 4.4 4.1 -2.8 21.8 23.7 5.6 7.1 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 5.6 5.0 2.9 -3.0 18.4 22.6 6.6 8.1 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 89 11 0 100 4.9 5.0 4.5 -3.0 19.5 21.5 6.5 8.2 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 4.5 4.8 3.2 -2.2 27.5 29.0 5.4 6.8 8.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 88 12 0 100 1.8 1.1 1.6 -4.2 14.7 17.1 3.4 5.0 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 95 5 0 100 3.9 3.8 4.7 -3.3 16.5 18.2 5.7 7.2 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------