***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.12.2017.-24.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 4.7 5.0 5.4 1.0 59.3 58.2 2.5 4.1 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 4.8 4.9 5.3 0.8 58.0 57.4 2.5 4.2 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.8 5.8 1.0 58.9 57.7 4.0 5.9 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 1.3 1.5 2.5 0.8 57.6 56.8 -0.8 0.8 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 5.8 6.0 3.7 0.8 57.5 56.5 3.3 5.2 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 5.3 5.6 3.8 1.1 60.2 58.5 3.0 4.6 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.4 4.6 5.3 0.9 58.5 57.6 2.2 3.8 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -0.3 -0.1 3.7 0.9 58.9 57.9 -2.2 -0.8 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.7 4.7 0.8 57.7 56.5 3.9 5.8 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.9 4.2 0.9 58.4 57.1 3.3 5.1 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 6.0 6.3 3.8 0.8 58.1 57.0 3.6 5.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 6.1 6.3 3.8 0.9 58.8 57.9 3.6 5.4 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.9 6.1 3.5 0.9 59.0 57.5 3.3 5.2 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.0 7.1 5.3 0.9 57.7 56.5 4.3 6.2 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 4.3 4.5 3.5 0.9 59.2 58.3 2.5 3.8 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.4 6.7 3.6 0.9 58.6 57.4 3.9 5.8 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 4.4 4.5 5.3 0.8 57.8 57.2 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 3.6 3.7 4.3 0.9 58.4 57.0 1.7 3.1 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.7 5.4 0.8 57.7 57.0 3.1 4.9 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.8 3.0 2.9 0.9 58.7 57.6 0.2 2.1 3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.2 6.5 5.2 0.9 58.7 57.3 3.7 5.6 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 5.0 5.0 5.3 0.7 56.8 56.4 2.7 4.3 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.4 5.5 5.8 0.8 57.6 56.7 3.0 4.7 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.7 5.1 0.9 58.1 56.8 4.0 5.9 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 4.8 5.1 3.9 0.9 59.1 57.7 2.8 4.3 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.0 5.3 3.3 0.8 58.7 57.7 2.9 4.5 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 6.2 6.5 4.9 1.0 59.4 58.1 3.7 5.5 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 5.2 5.5 3.0 0.9 58.3 57.6 3.1 4.7 6.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 3.0 3.1 3.8 0.8 58.0 56.8 0.5 2.3 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 4.8 5.1 5.2 0.9 58.4 57.6 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------