***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.11.2017.-24.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 4.1 4.5 4.6 -1.1 33.3 36.7 4.5 5.5 6.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 3.7 3.9 4.4 -1.4 30.2 34.8 4.1 5.0 5.9 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 5.1 5.4 4.9 -1.2 32.6 36.2 5.5 6.4 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -0.3 0.3 1.9 -1.0 35.5 38.1 0.1 1.2 2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 4.7 5.2 3.2 -1.1 34.0 36.7 5.1 6.1 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.5 4.9 2.8 -0.9 36.0 38.9 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 3.5 3.7 4.4 -1.3 30.6 35.0 3.8 4.8 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 -1.1 -0.9 2.5 -1.4 29.2 33.2 -0.6 0.4 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 5.3 5.8 4.1 -1.1 33.9 36.9 5.7 6.8 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 4.7 5.0 3.2 -1.4 31.1 34.6 5.1 6.1 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 4.9 5.3 3.4 -1.2 33.6 36.3 5.3 6.3 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 5.0 5.3 3.0 -1.2 32.0 35.2 5.3 6.4 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.9 5.1 3.1 -1.3 31.8 34.9 5.2 6.2 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 5.3 5.5 4.1 -1.5 29.8 33.8 5.7 6.8 7.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.3 4.6 3.5 -0.5 42.2 43.6 4.1 5.0 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 5.5 5.8 3.1 -1.1 34.0 36.6 5.7 6.8 7.8 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 3.3 3.3 4.2 -1.4 28.8 33.8 3.6 4.5 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 2.9 3.2 3.0 -1.5 29.8 33.8 3.3 4.2 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.2 4.4 4.5 -1.4 30.4 34.9 4.5 5.5 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 1.7 1.8 1.5 -1.6 26.2 31.1 2.3 3.3 4.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 5.0 5.4 4.6 -1.1 33.7 36.8 5.4 6.4 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 3.8 3.9 4.2 -1.5 28.1 33.3 4.2 5.1 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 4.2 4.5 4.8 -1.3 31.3 35.4 4.6 5.5 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 5.3 5.7 4.1 -1.4 30.7 34.5 5.8 6.9 7.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 4.1 4.4 3.4 -1.1 33.3 36.6 4.4 5.3 6.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 4.7 4.7 2.6 -1.2 30.3 34.1 4.9 5.8 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 4.8 5.2 4.2 -1.1 32.8 36.3 5.3 6.3 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.5 5.0 2.7 -0.8 38.5 40.5 4.7 5.6 6.5 28 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 1.8 2.0 2.4 -1.6 28.0 32.3 2.3 3.2 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 3.8 4.0 4.5 -1.3 31.3 35.5 4.2 5.1 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------