***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.11.2017.-03.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 15.3 28.2 27.0 241.9 90.8 80.8 3.6 6.9 11.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 12.4 23.4 24.9 244.1 90.6 78.8 2.9 5.6 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 17.5 34.8 26.2 245.6 91.2 80.9 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 18.8 28.3 29.2 197.9 86.1 76.7 5.9 10.2 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 17.7 32.8 28.6 229.3 90.1 81.7 3.6 7.4 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 10 90 100 12.9 22.7 30.4 243.9 91.5 85.1 3.4 6.0 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 12.2 22.1 25.3 241.4 90.3 78.6 3.4 6.1 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 21.6 38.9 35.3 244.9 91.6 83.1 6.8 11.4 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 16.1 29.0 26.7 226.8 89.7 81.5 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 18.7 34.1 30.5 226.9 90.2 81.2 4.8 9.0 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 19.8 37.0 28.9 228.7 90.2 81.4 4.0 8.2 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 22.9 45.8 31.5 239.9 91.2 82.6 4.5 9.5 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 18.3 30.3 31.9 225.2 89.8 83.0 5.0 8.9 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 18.8 38.8 32.0 255.3 93.1 81.2 4.8 8.9 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 24.5 37.0 28.2 178.3 82.7 73.0 5.0 10.7 19.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 17.6 33.4 31.5 238.8 91.0 83.7 3.6 7.2 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 13.5 24.0 24.1 237.5 89.9 79.1 3.3 6.1 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 18.9 38.0 34.3 249.1 92.7 82.7 5.1 9.2 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 14.7 29.6 25.5 251.0 91.3 79.5 2.9 6.0 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 23.8 58.1 52.4 300.2 95.3 87.3 4.6 9.5 16.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 17.9 33.1 27.9 240.6 90.9 82.7 3.7 7.5 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 14.1 28.0 25.0 243.4 90.6 80.3 2.5 5.5 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 14.1 29.6 27.0 261.1 92.4 80.3 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 17.5 33.6 29.2 241.7 91.9 80.4 5.0 8.9 14.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 15.8 28.5 29.4 228.2 89.9 81.3 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 16.0 27.5 32.6 232.5 90.9 85.0 3.9 7.2 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 16.1 28.4 28.0 237.5 90.5 81.2 4.1 7.6 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 19.2 28.7 27.6 190.9 84.6 75.7 5.2 9.6 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 25.5 56.3 40.6 276.3 94.4 84.9 6.5 11.9 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 13.4 26.6 25.6 246.9 91.1 79.3 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------