***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.12.2017.-10.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 7.3 9.8 14.6 112.5 67.3 57.1 3.1 5.7 9.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 7.0 9.7 12.9 112.6 67.6 56.4 3.0 5.5 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.8 10.1 14.2 108.3 65.9 55.0 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 9.3 12.3 16.3 111.4 66.6 57.6 4.0 7.4 12.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 8.3 10.9 16.2 112.8 67.0 57.4 3.6 6.5 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 6.8 8.6 14.3 106.5 64.5 56.0 2.6 5.3 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 7.1 10.1 12.8 115.1 68.5 57.0 3.2 5.9 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 10.5 14.2 18.1 117.4 68.7 58.0 4.9 8.5 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 7.0 9.4 16.6 113.4 67.3 57.0 3.1 5.6 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 8.1 11.1 17.3 113.2 67.3 56.8 3.4 6.4 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 7.2 9.9 16.6 112.8 67.0 57.3 3.1 5.8 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 7.9 11.2 16.4 116.1 68.1 58.1 3.1 6.2 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 8.3 10.9 16.4 111.6 66.6 59.0 4.3 7.1 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 11.4 14.8 17.7 109.1 65.8 54.9 4.6 8.9 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 8.8 9.5 13.3 90.1 59.8 49.9 2.5 6.1 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 7.3 8.8 14.5 103.2 63.2 54.0 3.3 6.0 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 8.5 12.0 12.9 118.4 69.6 57.7 3.6 6.6 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 7.9 11.1 18.6 116.2 68.3 56.4 3.3 6.2 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 7.7 9.9 13.1 110.1 66.7 55.4 3.7 6.3 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 8.6 12.4 24.7 123.9 70.8 57.7 4.0 7.0 10.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 8.2 10.4 15.6 112.0 67.0 56.4 4.0 6.7 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.6 13.0 12.8 113.4 68.0 56.7 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 7.8 10.1 13.9 105.6 64.9 53.8 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.3 13.5 17.2 112.7 67.2 55.7 4.6 8.2 13.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 6.2 8.8 17.6 118.6 69.1 59.5 2.7 5.0 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.6 11.8 16.9 119.1 69.2 59.9 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 7.5 10.6 15.9 117.2 68.8 58.8 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 6.9 7.7 13.4 95.1 60.8 51.4 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.6 18.0 21.5 121.9 70.2 57.7 5.4 9.9 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 6.5 8.7 12.9 109.8 66.7 55.7 2.8 5.2 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------