***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.12.2017.-17.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 8.4 14.6 14.9 134.6 74.0 61.4 3.3 6.6 11.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.2 13.9 12.7 131.3 73.1 58.8 4.3 7.4 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 10.7 17.2 14.2 127.5 72.0 59.8 4.2 8.3 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.3 15.6 14.7 112.6 68.0 56.3 6.1 10.0 14.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.6 13.2 14.9 112.7 67.7 57.3 6.0 9.0 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 7.8 9.2 12.7 99.1 63.1 53.5 3.4 6.1 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 9.8 15.2 12.8 134.2 73.9 58.7 4.5 7.8 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.4 20.1 14.7 104.5 64.8 54.9 10.0 14.8 20.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.2 11.9 15.6 112.8 67.5 57.3 4.0 7.1 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.4 15.2 15.6 108.0 65.8 55.9 5.9 9.9 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 10.1 12.2 13.5 105.5 65.1 55.0 4.8 8.1 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.6 12.3 12.8 102.3 64.1 54.3 4.8 8.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.1 12.2 13.9 106.0 65.0 55.0 4.7 8.1 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.4 21.7 16.2 117.5 68.8 57.5 7.5 13.0 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.3 12.8 13.8 105.3 67.0 52.6 2.6 6.2 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 10.4 12.5 13.3 105.2 65.0 54.5 5.0 8.4 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.1 12.9 11.6 123.8 71.2 56.6 4.3 7.3 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.1 14.7 16.3 109.1 66.0 55.8 5.5 9.4 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 10.9 16.7 12.9 129.0 72.5 58.8 4.6 8.5 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.0 17.7 19.9 108.6 66.2 56.0 6.0 10.9 17.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.7 13.6 15.1 119.0 69.4 58.0 3.9 7.3 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.8 12.6 11.5 117.3 69.3 56.0 5.2 8.1 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 10.5 15.6 13.6 125.3 71.4 58.6 4.9 8.5 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.6 17.6 15.4 115.7 68.2 57.1 6.0 10.6 16.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 7.7 11.7 16.5 127.9 72.1 59.6 3.4 6.1 9.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.7 11.2 12.5 100.0 63.8 53.7 4.2 7.4 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 8.8 14.7 15.9 134.6 74.0 61.3 3.5 6.8 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.3 11.3 13.4 104.9 65.9 53.6 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.9 24.3 17.4 108.8 65.8 55.8 9.7 16.0 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 9.9 16.3 13.4 134.5 73.9 60.0 4.0 7.7 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------