***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.12.2017.-24.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.7 9.7 12.5 109.9 66.8 53.1 3.7 6.1 9.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 7.5 8.9 10.5 107.5 66.0 52.1 4.2 6.3 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 5.1 12.8 11.8 109.6 66.6 52.1 5.1 8.4 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.1 14.5 13.0 107.2 66.2 53.2 6.1 9.8 14.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 6.1 15.3 13.0 107.1 66.0 53.2 6.2 10.2 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 6.4 13.0 10.7 93.1 60.5 49.0 6.6 10.2 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.5 10.4 10.8 111.2 67.4 53.1 4.5 7.0 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 8.7 18.1 13.5 103.9 64.8 52.0 8.9 13.4 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 4.0 10.6 13.8 109.9 66.6 53.4 4.2 6.9 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 5.0 12.5 14.0 106.1 65.3 52.5 5.2 8.5 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 5.3 12.9 12.2 102.8 64.4 52.1 5.4 9.0 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 6.2 12.1 11.7 100.5 63.8 51.3 6.3 9.2 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 7.1 14.2 11.6 94.1 61.0 50.1 7.1 11.0 15.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.5 14.1 13.5 104.4 64.8 51.2 6.5 10.1 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 4.0 13.6 12.7 106.9 66.8 51.0 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 6.3 12.6 11.4 97.2 62.4 50.9 6.5 9.7 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.3 10.5 10.4 110.7 67.2 53.6 4.1 6.8 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.5 10.8 14.3 105.0 64.7 51.9 4.3 7.4 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.5 9.0 10.4 104.4 64.9 51.1 3.3 5.8 9.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.9 12.9 18.0 104.4 65.0 52.2 5.9 9.2 13.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 14.6 13.2 13.3 112.0 67.5 54.0 4.9 8.4 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.9 9.0 10.2 102.2 64.3 51.6 3.9 6.3 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.3 8.3 10.8 102.8 64.2 50.0 3.4 5.7 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.7 12.8 12.9 105.8 65.1 51.5 4.6 8.2 13.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.8 14.9 14.5 112.0 67.6 54.7 4.6 8.6 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 6.8 13.3 11.2 96.9 62.8 50.2 6.9 10.2 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.6 13.0 13.4 110.1 66.9 53.8 4.3 7.9 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 4.5 12.0 11.8 103.1 64.9 50.7 4.6 7.9 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.7 18.7 15.2 104.2 64.5 51.8 7.5 12.7 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.0 9.6 10.8 107.8 66.1 51.7 4.0 6.5 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------