***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.11.2017.-24.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 49.4 59.8 69.0 148.2 82.1 74.7 26.2 35.1 45.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 45.8 54.0 60.9 148.5 81.6 73.9 24.5 32.4 41.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 60.2 70.7 66.5 145.4 80.9 73.0 32.0 42.8 54.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 63.4 71.1 73.2 134.1 76.6 69.4 33.9 45.9 59.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 58.6 67.5 72.7 139.3 79.3 72.8 33.4 43.5 54.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 50.1 57.1 68.1 135.7 78.4 71.5 26.4 35.6 45.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 47.9 57.8 61.7 151.1 82.7 74.8 25.9 34.2 43.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 75.6 86.9 81.6 143.5 81.3 74.6 47.6 58.9 70.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 49.5 57.7 72.8 137.7 79.0 72.4 25.9 35.1 45.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 61.1 70.3 77.4 137.3 79.4 72.7 34.2 44.8 56.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 58.1 66.7 71.2 136.9 78.7 72.2 31.4 41.8 53.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 62.0 72.8 72.4 140.8 80.2 73.6 33.1 44.4 56.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 59.1 66.5 73.8 136.0 78.8 72.0 34.6 44.4 55.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 72.1 83.3 79.4 143.1 81.3 72.4 44.3 55.4 67.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 54.4 73.6 68.0 122.3 70.2 62.4 29.0 45.8 66.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 56.2 64.7 70.7 137.1 78.7 71.7 28.9 39.4 51.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 48.8 58.5 59.0 148.3 81.3 73.1 26.5 35.4 45.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 57.8 68.2 83.5 143.0 82.1 74.1 34.7 43.9 54.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 52.2 61.0 62.0 147.3 81.3 73.5 28.2 37.2 47.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 69.5 91.0 115.1 157.5 86.4 78.3 35.9 48.3 62.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 56.1 66.6 71.8 143.6 80.8 73.7 29.4 39.7 51.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 49.6 58.1 59.5 144.0 79.8 71.8 28.2 37.1 46.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 50.5 57.9 65.4 145.6 81.0 72.9 28.7 37.0 46.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 63.3 72.2 74.7 141.2 80.7 72.1 40.4 49.7 59.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 51.5 60.3 78.0 145.6 81.6 74.7 29.2 37.8 47.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 54.7 62.6 73.2 140.1 79.3 73.3 30.9 40.3 50.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 54.8 66.0 73.2 148.4 82.4 75.5 29.4 39.0 49.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 55.2 59.7 66.2 125.2 72.3 64.9 25.9 38.0 52.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 90.6 110.7 94.7 150.3 84.9 76.2 53.1 67.4 83.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 48.7 58.6 62.7 148.9 81.9 74.1 25.6 34.3 44.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------