***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.12.2016.-11.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.9 6.4 0.5 54.9 54.4 3.5 5.4 7.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.4 5.3 6.5 0.5 55.6 54.6 3.0 4.8 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.9 7.0 7.0 0.7 57.2 55.9 4.2 6.2 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 3.7 2.8 4.2 1.2 62.1 60.0 -0.7 1.3 3.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.9 5.3 0.8 57.6 56.5 4.2 6.1 7.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.5 4.6 0.9 59.3 58.1 3.8 5.6 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 5.2 4.9 6.3 0.4 53.7 53.3 2.9 4.6 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 1.4 1.6 4.8 0.8 59.1 57.6 -1.3 0.6 2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.8 6.2 1.0 59.6 57.8 4.8 6.7 8.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.8 5.6 1.0 59.7 57.9 4.1 5.9 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.9 5.6 0.8 58.1 56.9 4.2 6.1 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.0 7.1 5.1 0.8 58.0 56.9 4.2 6.2 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.6 5.3 0.6 56.2 56.0 4.0 5.9 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 7.5 7.7 6.8 1.1 60.0 57.4 4.5 6.5 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 6.5 6.0 5.6 1.4 63.9 61.9 3.5 4.9 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.2 7.2 5.1 0.7 57.0 56.2 4.5 6.4 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.0 5.0 6.3 0.6 56.6 55.1 2.8 4.4 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 5.0 5.3 5.4 1.0 60.3 58.2 2.7 4.3 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.1 6.7 0.7 56.6 55.3 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 1.2 4.5 3.9 0.8 58.5 57.2 1.6 3.5 5.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.8 7.0 6.7 0.9 58.4 57.0 4.2 6.1 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 5.7 5.8 6.6 0.8 58.6 56.4 3.3 5.0 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.1 7.0 0.8 58.0 56.2 3.5 5.3 7.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 7.6 8.0 6.6 1.0 60.0 57.8 4.8 6.8 8.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.6 5.3 0.6 55.6 55.0 3.4 5.1 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.8 4.5 0.4 55.0 55.5 4.0 5.4 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.2 5.9 0.3 53.4 53.2 3.9 5.8 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 7.5 6.8 5.0 1.4 63.5 61.1 3.9 5.5 7.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 1.2 4.4 4.9 1.0 60.2 58.3 1.5 3.3 5.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.3 6.5 0.5 54.7 54.1 3.1 4.8 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------