***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.12.2016.-18.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 2.5 5.1 4.9 0.7 57.1 56.6 2.7 4.4 6.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 1.6 4.3 4.7 0.5 55.6 56.3 2.1 3.8 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 7.4 6.1 5.3 0.7 57.7 57.2 3.5 5.3 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 -2.2 1.2 2.3 0.7 58.3 57.3 -1.7 0.3 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.0 5.9 3.4 0.8 58.6 57.3 3.4 5.0 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 6.7 5.8 3.3 1.0 60.5 60.0 3.1 4.8 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.4 4.1 4.6 0.5 55.5 56.2 1.8 3.5 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 1.2 0.3 3.3 0.8 59.3 58.8 -2.3 -0.6 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.5 6.6 4.3 0.9 59.0 57.5 3.8 5.7 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 5.7 5.8 3.8 0.9 59.3 58.3 3.3 4.9 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.2 6.2 3.5 0.9 59.3 58.3 3.5 5.3 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 7.8 6.6 3.5 0.9 60.1 59.5 3.6 5.5 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 7.2 6.2 3.2 0.9 60.1 59.8 3.4 5.2 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 7.9 6.7 5.1 1.0 60.2 58.9 3.4 5.4 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.9 5.0 3.1 0.7 57.9 57.7 2.7 4.3 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 7.8 6.7 3.3 0.9 60.0 59.2 4.0 5.7 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.3 3.8 4.7 0.5 55.4 56.2 1.7 3.3 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 3.6 3.8 4.0 1.0 60.6 59.6 1.5 3.0 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 6.5 5.0 5.0 0.6 56.3 56.6 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 3.2 3.4 2.5 0.9 59.8 59.7 0.7 2.4 4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.3 6.2 4.8 0.8 58.5 57.2 3.7 5.4 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 6.0 4.6 4.8 0.6 56.6 56.9 2.2 3.9 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 6.1 5.0 5.4 0.7 57.7 57.3 2.6 4.3 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 7.6 6.6 4.8 1.0 60.1 59.0 3.7 5.5 7.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.6 5.0 3.5 0.7 57.1 56.2 2.8 4.4 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 6.6 5.7 3.0 0.8 59.9 59.9 3.4 4.9 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.9 4.4 0.7 57.0 56.3 3.4 5.2 6.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.6 6.0 2.8 0.8 58.7 58.0 3.0 5.0 6.8 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.7 3.0 3.5 1.0 60.2 59.6 0.2 1.9 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 1.9 4.5 4.7 0.5 55.8 56.3 2.3 3.9 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------