***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.12.2016.-25.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 4.8 3.7 2.9 -0.5 44.3 47.3 2.6 4.2 5.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 4.9 3.5 2.7 -0.7 42.6 45.7 2.6 4.2 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 6.6 5.2 3.2 -0.6 43.7 46.2 4.0 5.8 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -1.1 0.1 0.3 -0.6 43.0 47.3 -0.8 0.7 2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 5.9 4.5 1.3 -0.5 43.8 46.9 3.3 5.1 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 2.2 4.4 1.4 -0.1 49.2 50.7 2.9 4.5 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.6 3.2 2.7 -0.7 42.8 46.2 2.2 3.9 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -2.5 -1.2 1.3 -0.4 45.0 48.2 -2.1 -0.8 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.5 5.1 2.2 -0.5 44.2 46.8 3.8 5.7 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.8 4.5 1.8 -0.4 45.0 47.7 3.2 5.0 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.2 4.8 1.4 -0.5 44.6 47.8 3.6 5.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.1 4.8 1.4 -0.4 45.6 48.8 3.5 5.2 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.8 4.9 1.2 -0.1 48.6 50.8 3.2 5.0 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 3.8 5.8 2.9 -0.4 45.5 46.8 4.2 6.3 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.2 3.1 1.0 -0.8 41.0 47.0 2.5 3.7 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.5 5.3 1.2 -0.3 46.7 49.3 3.9 5.6 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.4 3.0 2.8 -0.8 41.6 44.8 2.2 3.8 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 1.5 2.8 2.0 -0.2 47.4 48.9 1.7 3.0 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.8 4.2 3.0 -0.7 43.1 45.7 3.1 4.9 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -0.3 1.8 0.8 -0.1 48.5 50.6 0.1 1.9 3.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.2 4.8 2.7 -0.6 43.2 46.1 3.6 5.5 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 5.1 3.6 2.9 -0.8 42.1 44.8 2.8 4.4 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.7 4.1 3.4 -0.6 43.9 45.8 3.0 4.7 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 6.7 5.3 2.7 -0.4 45.8 47.3 3.8 5.8 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 4.9 3.7 1.5 -0.6 43.2 47.0 2.9 4.3 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.4 4.3 1.3 0.0 50.4 52.2 2.7 4.3 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.3 4.9 2.5 -0.5 44.6 47.7 3.6 5.5 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.9 3.9 0.7 -0.6 42.9 47.2 3.1 4.5 5.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.8 1.9 1.7 -0.2 48.0 49.6 0.3 2.1 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.0 3.6 2.7 -0.7 43.3 46.3 2.6 4.3 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------