***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.11.2016.-04.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 4.2 4.8 6.3 45.2 37.2 30.8 4.1 7.6 12.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 2.7 3.1 5.2 40.1 34.6 28.1 2.9 5.6 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.0 5.1 6.7 47.7 40.8 32.9 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 5.3 6.0 6.8 38.9 32.7 25.9 6.0 10.7 17.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 3.6 5.1 8.1 51.8 39.0 30.6 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 2.9 3.7 6.7 44.8 34.7 28.6 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 3.1 3.6 4.8 38.0 32.4 26.3 3.7 6.4 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 6.0 8.7 8.6 55.0 42.1 33.6 6.2 11.1 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.2 4.4 7.4 49.6 39.3 30.7 3.2 6.9 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.2 6.4 9.0 57.8 43.2 33.9 4.1 8.2 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 3.1 4.6 7.6 50.5 37.9 29.3 3.7 8.0 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 4.1 5.7 7.1 50.1 38.5 30.9 4.3 9.5 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 4.1 5.6 8.3 50.5 36.3 30.2 4.8 9.1 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.3 5.9 8.2 50.5 40.8 32.2 4.3 8.1 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 3.8 3.1 4.5 23.3 24.7 18.6 5.1 11.5 21.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 2.7 4.1 7.1 45.3 34.7 27.6 3.8 7.8 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 2.9 3.0 4.3 34.2 30.8 24.9 3.3 6.5 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 3.9 6.1 9.1 58.4 43.4 34.3 3.9 7.9 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 2.9 3.4 5.7 42.3 36.2 29.4 3.0 6.1 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.0 6.1 10.8 56.0 42.3 34.5 3.8 8.3 15.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 4.5 5.6 7.1 46.7 38.2 30.6 4.5 8.5 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 2.6 2.4 4.6 34.8 31.3 25.3 2.7 6.0 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.0 3.5 6.6 46.0 38.7 31.0 2.6 5.7 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.5 6.4 8.0 53.5 41.9 33.0 4.6 8.3 13.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.3 4.0 8.0 50.1 38.6 32.1 3.1 6.4 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 3.1 3.9 6.8 43.2 33.5 28.1 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.8 4.5 6.7 46.8 37.3 31.2 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 3.5 3.9 5.6 32.9 29.0 22.2 4.7 9.4 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 4.6 6.9 9.3 55.7 42.1 33.7 4.6 9.6 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 3.0 3.9 5.6 42.6 37.0 29.9 3.3 6.2 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------