***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.12.2016.-11.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 10.1 16.0 18.8 188.5 84.9 70.9 2.8 5.3 8.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 10.2 17.6 16.3 193.5 85.2 68.4 2.7 5.3 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 12.0 18.3 16.9 169.0 81.7 66.2 2.5 5.5 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.5 16.4 18.6 152.7 78.4 63.1 4.5 7.7 11.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 12.7 17.3 18.6 159.2 79.9 65.3 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 9.5 13.4 18.1 161.6 80.2 64.8 2.3 4.8 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 10.8 18.7 17.1 205.0 86.7 70.7 2.8 5.4 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 15.8 19.8 19.7 157.6 79.4 63.7 6.3 9.8 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 10.4 14.3 18.6 159.8 80.0 65.4 3.1 5.7 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 13.1 17.2 18.9 153.4 78.6 63.6 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 11.4 15.0 18.7 154.5 78.9 64.7 3.2 6.0 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 12.1 16.0 19.2 159.4 79.9 64.0 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 11.7 14.2 19.1 151.1 78.1 62.7 4.2 6.9 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 17.7 24.6 20.2 161.8 80.3 65.4 4.6 9.0 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.2 16.8 16.9 148.2 77.0 58.6 2.3 5.5 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 11.1 14.3 18.6 157.2 79.4 64.7 3.5 6.1 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 12.0 20.2 15.9 198.7 86.1 69.9 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 12.4 16.0 19.9 153.9 78.8 63.7 3.7 6.7 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 11.3 17.8 16.2 184.8 84.1 66.8 3.4 6.2 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 12.2 15.3 23.7 152.2 78.3 61.6 4.7 7.5 11.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 11.1 15.9 18.4 166.8 81.4 67.4 3.8 6.6 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 14.0 21.9 15.8 186.3 84.4 67.3 3.7 7.1 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 11.5 17.4 16.8 171.9 82.1 65.2 2.9 5.7 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 14.9 19.8 18.9 157.5 79.5 64.9 4.3 7.9 13.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 10.0 14.5 20.7 178.7 83.3 70.5 3.0 5.4 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 12.1 15.7 19.2 159.8 79.9 64.0 3.7 6.5 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 11.4 18.4 20.6 197.8 86.4 72.8 3.4 6.2 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.7 12.2 16.9 144.5 76.4 59.2 2.5 4.9 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 19.1 24.8 21.3 153.5 78.8 63.4 6.2 10.8 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 9.8 15.9 16.6 188.3 84.5 68.1 2.8 5.2 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------