***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.12.2016.-25.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 7.3 10.2 12.4 126.5 71.6 57.4 3.5 5.9 8.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.2 11.3 10.9 125.6 71.7 55.9 4.3 6.8 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.9 15.2 12.2 122.5 70.6 56.9 5.1 8.7 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 12.1 19.1 15.3 144.4 76.3 62.6 6.1 9.9 14.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 17.7 20.3 15.4 137.6 74.7 63.0 7.0 11.2 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 15.7 17.5 14.3 136.1 74.4 61.5 6.0 9.6 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.0 13.1 10.8 128.9 72.6 56.2 4.1 7.1 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 20.7 22.7 15.8 132.9 73.5 62.0 9.0 13.6 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 8.4 13.0 15.8 130.0 72.7 61.7 3.8 6.8 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.8 15.6 16.2 128.5 72.2 61.7 5.5 8.9 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 15.8 18.2 15.3 138.9 75.0 63.4 5.7 9.5 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 14.2 16.2 14.7 137.5 74.7 62.5 5.8 9.1 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 16.2 18.6 15.5 139.0 75.1 63.1 6.5 10.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.6 17.0 15.1 117.7 69.2 57.0 7.9 11.5 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 16.0 21.9 15.8 162.3 79.8 62.5 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 14.4 16.5 15.2 142.7 76.0 63.7 5.6 8.8 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.1 13.2 10.6 128.5 72.6 55.6 3.7 6.7 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 8.4 11.7 16.0 122.4 70.4 60.4 4.2 7.0 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.7 12.4 11.3 124.0 71.2 55.7 3.9 6.8 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 10.9 14.4 19.0 125.5 71.3 60.5 6.4 9.4 12.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.0 14.3 14.2 126.6 71.7 59.5 4.8 8.0 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.4 12.4 11.3 131.3 73.2 56.1 4.0 6.7 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.8 10.5 12.2 121.6 70.6 55.9 4.0 6.4 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.5 14.5 14.4 121.9 70.4 59.7 5.1 8.5 12.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.8 18.1 14.5 129.9 72.6 59.4 4.7 8.9 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.5 15.1 14.2 137.7 74.8 60.7 5.7 8.7 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.8 16.3 13.3 129.0 72.4 58.3 4.3 8.0 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 15.0 18.9 15.3 153.3 78.1 63.1 4.4 8.0 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 15.4 20.0 16.6 119.8 69.5 59.8 8.5 12.9 18.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 8.5 12.2 11.2 124.4 71.4 56.4 4.1 6.9 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------